In another display of resilience, the stock market rebounded to a record high on Thursday following the recent correction. The drawdown wasn’t particularly unusual, or unexpected, given the geopolitical risk lurking in the background. But the recovery from the low was notable for its speed.
The latest cycle of peaking and recovery cut the S&P 500 Index by 9.1% at the deepest drawdown (Mar. 30), ranking as the 32nd‑deepest peak‑to‑trough loss since 1955. It was a relatively significant loss, but far from the deepest on record—roughly the ninth percentile in the context of the skewed historical data for S&P 500 drawdowns for the past seven decades.
The speed of the rebound off the trough—just 11 trading days—set a new record for drawdowns of 9% declines or deeper. The previous fastest recovery occurred in early 2000, when the market fully erased its drawdown in 17 days.
In a world of whirlwind news cycles and rapidly evolving macro guesswork in recent years, market sentiment is moving faster. For investors looking at their latest statements, that’s a good thing for now, at least through yesterday’s close. But volatility continues to work both ways, and I suspect the rollercoaster ride will persist at a degree that’s more extreme than the historical record.
One implication: the behavioral skill set of looking through short‑term noise is more valuable than ever.
Then again, am I seeing ghosts? Although current events have been taking markets on a wild ride lately, it’s still reasonable to argue that the jury’s still out on whether volatility has undergone a regime shift. Using Morningstar’s calculations, it’s not yet obvious that the big picture has changed.
“Expressed in standard deviation of daily returns, or how much the index’s fluctuations vary from their average, volatility for 2026 through April 10 registered at 15% on an annualized basis,” writes Dan Lefkovitz, a strategist at Morningstar. “It turns out that 15% is right about average for US stock market volatility,” he observes, based on the average annual standard deviation of daily US stock market returns for the past century.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.