Key Highlights
- The dipped on Monday as losses in precious metal miners offset gains in financials, with investors digesting several merger and acquisition announcements.
- Japan’s rose for a sixth straight session, gaining 0.50% to close at 4,084.74 on strengthened investor sentiment from lower oil prices and global market momentum, while the tech‑heavy hovered flat at 69,737.69.
- Oil prices held near pre‑Iran war levels on Monday as Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices, OPEC+ agreed to boost output targets from August, and exports through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovery.
- eased from two‑week highs on Monday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, though declines were capped as signs of a cooling U.S. labor market tempered bets on a Fed rate hike.
- The dollar steadied after last week’s worst weekly drop since April, prompted by a sharp slowdown in June payrolls and weaker oil that trimmed expectations for an imminent Fed hike while the yen languished near four‑decade lows, raising the risk of official intervention.
- South Korean chipmaker (000660) on Monday launched a U.S. share sale to raise 43 trillion won ($28.07 billion), securing indications of interest for up to $7 billion from major investors as it taps the global AI boom with one of the world’s largest new equity offerings.
- (MSFT) is cutting about 2.1% of its workforce roughly 4,800 jobs—restructuring parts of its commercial and Xbox divisions as it redirects investments toward AI infrastructure; the stock was down 1.5% in early trading.
Wall Street returned from the long weekend buying the dip in chip stocks. rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while the slipped about 190 points (0.3%) after an early uptick.
The , hit late in the holiday-shortened week, led the rebound, reversing last week’s sharp chip-sector selloff.
At 10:18 a.m. ET, the Dow fell 149.02 points (0.28%) to 52,751.05, the S&P 500 rose 38.57 points (0.52%) to 7,521.81, and the Nasdaq gained 283.78 points (1.10%) to 26,116.45. All three indexes nonetheless climbed about 2% over the holiday‑shortened week despite continued volatility in semiconductor stocks.
US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar
Minutes from the Fed’s first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh will be released Wednesday, capping a quiet week for economic data. Markets typically look to the minutes for clues on thinking, but Warsh’s reluctance to signal policy may yield an abridged account.
Investors trimmed bets on a Fed rate hike this year after last week’s softer-than-expected . CME’s FedWatch now pegs a 24% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the July 29 meeting, down from about 30% a week earlier.
The second‑quarter earnings season accelerates later this month, markets will eye results from (DAL.N) and (PEP.O), both due later in the week.
Economic Calendar: (Week of July 07 – 10)
Tue 07/07:
Wed 07/08:
- Consumer Credit; EIA Crude ; MBA Mortgage Applications; Wholesale Inventories
Thu 07/09:
- ; EIA Natural Gas Inventories; ;
Fri 07/10:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar, a more detailed calendar
Key Earnings Calendar: (Week of July 07 – 10)
Tue 07/07:
- Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC), Kura Sushi USA (KRUS), Penguin Solutions (PENG), Saratoga Investment (SAR)
Wed 07/08:
- AZZ Inc. (AZZ), Helen of Troy (HELE), Immersion Corp. (IMMR), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), PriceSmart (PSMT)
Thu 07/09:
- Byrna Technologies (BYRN), Frequency Electronics (FEIM), Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX), PepsiCo (PEP), WD‑40 Co. (WDFC)
Fri 07/10:
https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar, a more detailed calendar
PepsiCo will report Q2 2026 results before the market opens on Thursday, July 9; analysts expect $2.19 EPS on $23.97 billion in revenue. In the prior quarter the company beat estimates with $1.61 EPS and $19.44 billion in revenue (up 8.5% year‑over‑year). Wall Street is cautiously constructive, consensus rating Hold with an average target of $166.40 and PepsiCo recently raised its quarterly dividend to $1.48 per share.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is forecast to earn $1.44 per share for the quarter, down 31.4% year‑over‑year, on revenues of $17.72 billion, up 6.5% from the year‑ago period.
Weekly US Indices Probability Map
- The U.S. weekly market probability map for June 29 – July 02, 2026 suggests “Bullish week ahead!”.
- July historically strong: since 2007 DJIA +2.32% avg in 85% of years; Nasdaq +3.11% avg in 75%; S&P 500 +2.41% avg in 75%.
- Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.
He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.