There is now around a 65 percent probability that Bitcoin could fall below the $50,000 level in 2026, The Kobeissi Letter shared earlier.
The projection points to growing downside risk as traders reassess valuations amid volatile global liquidity conditions and shifting appetite for risk assets.
Although Bitcoin is currently trading above the $50,000 threshold, market-implied expectations derived from pricing models show an increasing tilt toward bearish scenarios and levels.
The $50,000 mark is being closely watched on a psychological and technical level, with rising forecast probabilities signaling that markets are preparing for potential downside pressure rather than continued stability.