TLDR
- The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, its first hike since 2023, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4%.
- Bitcoin held steady around $75,000 to $76,000 and showed little immediate reaction to the announcement.
- 16 of 18 Fed officials expect at least one more rate hike before the end of the year.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $746 million in net outflows over the two sessions around the Fed meeting.
- Key levels to watch are $75,000 support and $77,000 to $78,000 resistance.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, its first hike since 2023. Bitcoin held near $75,000 to $76,000 after the announcement, avoiding a sharp drop.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to lift the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. The move was aimed at addressing inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the economy is strengthening and that he was “hard-pressed” to call financial conditions restrictive. He said the central bank remains focused on returning inflation to target.
The Fed’s updated projections showed 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. Andrew Melville, head of research at Block Scholes, said a further hike would be a “more hawkish surprise” than Wednesday’s move.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Add Pressure
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $295.98 million in net outflows on September 16. That followed a $450.33 million outflow on September 15, according to SoSoValue data.
Combined, roughly $746 million left the funds across those two sessions. ETFs posted outflows in six of the seven trading sessions between September 8 and September 16, totaling about $1.05 billion.
Total ETF net assets fell to approximately $95.19 billion on September 16, down from $100.09 billion on September 14. That drop reflects both outflows and Bitcoin’s price changes.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Bitcoin’s immediate support sits near $75,000, with resistance at $77,000 to $78,000. A move above that range would need to happen before the short-term picture improves.
Below $75,000, the next support zone runs from $71,500 to $73,600, with $70,000 marking a larger structural level. On the upside, $81,600 stands as the bigger resistance target.
Momentum indicators show a mixed picture. The MACD histogram remains below zero, pointing to seller control, while the RSI sits closer to neutral than oversold.
Cooper Duschang, research analyst at Talos, said the price reaction suggests the Fed’s decision was largely expected by crypto markets. He noted Bitcoin held broadly around pre-announcement levels even as equities moved lower.
Duschang said perpetual futures shifted toward net selling, led by about $82 million in Bitcoin and $68 million in Ether over the past hour. Spot markets told a different story, with around $15.5 million of net Bitcoin buying.
He also pointed to exchange flows, with about 2,170 Bitcoin moving onto exchanges after the rate hike, followed by a withdrawal of 1,260 Bitcoin. Duschang said investors appear to be repositioning rather than exiting the market outright.
Martin Lee, market insights lead at DWF Labs, said the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance could lead risk assets to reprice around that outlook.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin traded at $76,663, up 1.35% over 24 hours.
