Bitcoin surges past $72,000 amid US-Iran ceasefire easing tensions

Bitcoin has surged past $72,000. The market on whether it hits $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 34.5% YES, down slightly from 36% twenty-four hours ago.

The $100,000 target market has seen $2,613 in USDC trading volume over the last day, with an order book depth requiring $2,908 to move the price 5 points. The $150,000 target is priced at 9.5% YES, with $877 in trading volume and a thinner book needing only $792 for a 5-point shift.

The recent price surge coincides with a temporary ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict, which has eased geopolitical tensions and helped stabilize energy markets. That kind of de-escalation tends to support broader risk appetite, including crypto. But the slight dip in odds for hitting $100,000 suggests traders aren’t fully buying the momentum yet, possibly waiting for stronger institutional adoption signals or regulatory clarity.

With Bitcoin at $72,000, the question is whether this level holds. The bull case rests on increased ETF inflows, institutional buying, and dollar weakness. On the other side, regulatory crackdowns or macroeconomic shocks could reverse the move. At 35¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin reaches $100,000, a 2.9x return.

Watch for BlackRock’s ETF inflow data and any announcements from MicroStrategy or Coinbase, as these could move the market.

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