Sensex Today Live: ‘Positive outlook clouded by monsoon’
“Indian equities are expected to maintain a positive bias, supported by progress in the US-Iran negotiations, firm global cues, lower crude oil prices. Ongoing discussions in Switzerland have raised expectations of a formal peace framework and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, improving global sentiment and easing concerns around energy prices.
However, the depreciated rupee (+0.5% at 94.7/USD) and monsoon-related uncertainties could add some volatility, as both could influence inflation trends and rural demand. Domestic markets extended their gains on Monday, with the Nifty 50 advancing 0.4% to close at 24,102. The rally was supported by optimism surrounding the US-Iran talks, lower crude prices, firm global cues, value buying in Information Technology stocks and a 1% decline in India VIX, indicating easing market volatility. Broader markets outperformed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 gaining 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Sectorally, Media, Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare emerged as the top gainers. The Nifty IT index gained 0.7% following the recent correction, while the Defence index advanced 1.5% on expectations of a potential defence export deal with the UAE involving indigenous missile and air defence systems.
Consumer Durables and FMCG were among the key laggards. Going forward, investors will closely monitor developments in US-Iran negotiations, the progress of the southwest monsoon and the release of US Core PCE inflation and personal spending data. Primary market activity is expected to remain robust, with multiple IPOs opening for subscription and several companies scheduled to list this week. Additionally, AMFI’s semi-annual market-cap categorisation review could trigger portfolio rebalancing across market segments. A normal and well-distributed monsoon remains critical for supporting agricultural output, rural demand and inflation stability, thereby influencing the broader market outlook,” says Siddhartha Khemka – Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.