A widely watched indicator has flipped to “altcoin season,” for the opposite reason the label suggests. Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal, which reads above 50 when alternative coins, or alts, outperform bitcoin, has climbed to 86. Alts are not rallying. Bitcoin is just falling faster than they are.
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The signal tracks relative performance, so alts can lead either by rising or by falling less. This is the second case. After nearly two years of declines, alts have run out of sellers and steadied, while bitcoin has dropped hard, sliding back toward $63,600, per CoinDesk data. Bitcoin, as Glassnode puts it, “is still doing most of the work.”
A real altcoin season has capital rotating into smaller tokens as they climb. This is the hollow version, where the reading turns bullish for alts because bitcoin is selling off, which is bearish for the market as a whole. Relative strength is not a rally.
Until alts start rising on their own rather than holding while bitcoin falls, the signal says more about bitcoin’s weakness than about demand for anything else.