While there’s been lots to talk about in the bond market lately, the stock market has been treading water over the last couple of weeks, hovering around gains of roughly 13% for the year.
The markets could get more interesting in this coming week. The official filing for what is likely to be an absolutely massive IPO from Anthropic is expected any day now, although the timing is uncertain. (Check out our Q&A with PitchBook’s Harrison Rolfes on what investors should watch in the filing. Find part one here and part two here.) What we do know for sure is that the week will end with the August Consumer Price Index report. After the strong August jobs report, this appears to be the only thing standing in the way of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September.
This week’s Market Brief will close with a quick look at CPI forecasts. But it starts by checking whether the much-predicted broadening of stock market returns has actually taken place this year. Plus: Why Morningstar senior equity analyst Seth Goldstein expects mass-produced robots will be a real factor sooner rather than later.
Are We There Yet (with Stock Market Broadening)?
After years of a market dominated by large-cap and technology stocks, analysts and money managers pegged 2026 as (yet another year) when returns would finally broaden. Is it happening?
Morningstar data shows that of the 13.1% return in the Morningstar US Total Market Index so far this year, 7.6 percentage points (60%) are from technology stocks. At the industry level, 4 percentage points are from semiconductor stocks alone. With over half of all 2026 returns from technology stocks, that’s actually significantly more concentrated than last year, when tech accounted for 40% of the gains.
Other ways to look at the broadening question are by style (value vs. growth) and market capitalization. Across the Morningstar Style Box, large-cap stocks—growth, blend, and even value—continue to dominate investor returns. Large growth stocks contributed 3.7 percentage points to the 13.1% return, while large blend stocks are responsible for 4.9 points. Mid blend and mid growth have also contributed to the market’s 2026 gains, but not by much. However, small-cap stocks barely leave a footprint. That’s despite a nearly 13% return on small-cap growth stocks.
Looking at Style Box returns as a percent of the overall market’s gain, there’s an argument that 2026 is showing some signs of broadening. Large-cap contributions fell this year to account for nearly 80% of the Total Market Index’s returns. That’s down from 89% in 2025 and 85% in 2024. Mid-cap growth and blend are responsible for about 10%, largely unchanged from the previous two years. The difference is spread across the remaining categories (small caps and mid-cap value). On their own, those boxes haven’t contributed much, adding less than 0.5 percentage points each to the total return. But with smaller returns on large-cap stocks this year, the math adds up to some 9% of 2026 returns.
Putting it all together, the answer to the question of “Is the stock market broadening?” is “Sort of.”
Humanoid Robots Are Coming
Will robots become part of the AI trade? The next decade could see a new technology hit the mainstream. Morningstar analysts say a future in which humanoid robots perform a wide variety of tasks for businesses—like managing stock in warehouses, working in manufacturing plants, and unloading trailers—may not be so far away. At-home use by consumers could follow.
“Over time, we see humanoids becoming more useful and humanoid companies being able to sell these robots to be used as workers in a commercial setting, then eventually by consumers at home,” writes Morningstar senior equity analyst Seth Goldstein in a new report. These types of robots, designed to mimic human proportions, can use artificial intelligence to learn to perform manual tasks, make decisions, and move through their environments.
Goldstein forecasts that humanoid robot sales in the US will reach 3.5 million in 2035, and for the market to then be worth more than $100 billion. Though the rollout is slow for now, he argues that adoption of this new technology is already underway, with manufacturing and logistics firms using some humanoid robots in their operations. Morningstar analysts expect exponential growth in the industry beginning around 2030 as software improves and models become more efficient. By 2040, they forecast sales of more than 13 million robots.
Goldstein’s top pick in the industry is Tesla TSLA, which has already invested in assembly lines to manufacture these types of robots. Nvidia NVDA and STMicroelectronics STM, two key suppliers for robotics firms, round out the list of winners.
After a Strong Jobs Report, Is the CPI Still Make-or-Break on a Rate Hike?
Based largely on recent comments from Fed officials, ahead of Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, the belief was that the odds of a rate increase in September would depend on the August CPI. The thinking was that a soft inflation reading would support a slow inflation downtrend, allowing the Fed to stay on hold. Meanwhile, a hot reading would be a green light for a rate hike.
But the 162,000-job jump in August, coupled with an upward revision to July’s data, has analysts thinking the odds now favor a rate cut. “Before today, Fed speakers pointed to next week’s CPI report as the decisive data point for the next FOMC meeting. That is still undoubtedly true, though if it’s a toss-up, today’s report will support the hawks,” JP Morgan chief US economist Michael Feroli wrote Friday.
At Baird Strategas, chief economist Donald Rissmiller writes: “With upward revisions and a strong August jobs report, a Fed rate hike in September is now the base case. It could be unanimous.”
And over at UBS, economist Andrew Dubinsky laid out his timeline:
As for CPI forecasts, FactSet consensus expectations center on the monthly reading on inflation having picked up in August to 0.36% from July, when it rose 0.1%. But on an annual basis, the CPI is expected to cool slightly to a 3.3% rate from 3.4% in July. Stay tuned this week for a deeper dive into what economists expect to see.