U.S. Treasury yields moved higher as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices up, raising concerns about renewed inflation pressures. Brent crude briefly hit a six week high before easing on signs of possible negotiations, but uncertainty around the conflict continues to influence market sentiment.
The rise in yields reflects investor caution that higher energy prices could eventually pass through to consumer inflation, even as recent data showed cooling price pressures. The 2 year and 10 year Treasury yields both edged higher, indicating shifting expectations around interest rates.
Markets are currently pricing in a 62 percent probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September, despite expectations that the central bank will hold rates steady at its upcoming July meeting. The geopolitical backdrop is expected to dominate trading, with limited economic data scheduled.
Attention is also on upcoming Treasury supply, including 20 year bonds and inflation protected securities, which could further impact yields and demand dynamics in the bond market.