US spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pulled in $75.7 million last week, their second winning week in a row. Bitcoin also reclaimed $65,000 on Monday as hopes grew that US-Iran talks may resume.
The rebound sounds big. It is not. The $273.1 million recovered so far is just 3.3% of the $8.2 billion that left the funds over the prior eight weeks.
A Modest Rebound After Record Bitcoin ETF Outflows
SoSoValue data shows the latest inflows followed $197.4 million the week before. When more money enters than leaves, investors are net buyers of the funds.
The recovery began in early July, when the funds snapped a 10-day streak of daily redemptions.
The hole is still deep, however. June was the worst month on record, with $4.5 billion exiting. That broke February 2025’s $3.56 billion record. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) drove nearly 79% of the June exits.
Total assets tell the same story. The funds now hold about $77 billion, down from more than $104 billion in mid-May.
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Even the green week was bumpy. Monday alone saw $424.7 million leave, the biggest one-day exit since June 26, after US-Iran military tensions flared again. Buyers returned for the next four sessions.
BeInCrypto Markets data shows BTC trading near $65,261. The price is up 1.4% in a day and 5.2% on the week as Washington and Tehran signal talks could restart.
Gold’s Long Road or Citi’s Zero?
Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says gold ETFs offer the best map for what comes next. Bitcoin and gold pay no interest or dividends. Sentiment alone moves them.
His case rests on GLD, the first US-listed gold ETF. It briefly became the world’s largest ETF in 2011. Assets then crashed from roughly $76 billion to $22 billion. Today it holds nearly $190 billion. Each cycle set a higher high.
IBIT looks familiar. It crossed $100 billion last October. Bitcoin then fell roughly 48% from its $126,080 peak.
“Bitcoin ETFs may be following the same script: spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries that may test investors’ patience,” Balchunas wrote, signaling that the pattern amounts to two steps forward and one step back.
Citigroup sees it differently. On July 1, the bank cut its 12-month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000, its second cut in a year that began at $143,000. It also expects zero ETF inflows over the next year, blaming stalled US crypto laws and weak institutional demand.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink disagrees. He now calls the washout over as flows turn positive.
So who is right? Weekly flows will keep grabbing headlines. Yet gold’s history suggests multi-year cycles, not seven-day totals, may decide bitcoin’s next big move, especially with bond markets pricing renewed Fed hike risk.