Commodity prices have soared on Iran war disruptions, but according to top economist Steve Hanke, they could be about to go much higher as the market enters a new “supercycle.”
Hanke, who teaches applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, laid out why he sees the commodities market entering a new growth phase. As part of his thesis, he also noted that he thinks this it’s an ideal time to pivot out of the past year’s hottest trades, even as some investors pile in.
“We’re entering another commodity supercycle,” he wrote on X. “Everything is going up. The US-Israeli war on Iran helped make that happen. So, you want to be pivoting your portfolio away from tech into hardcore commodities.”
Some recent commodity surges did not start with the Iran war. Gold and silver prices spent most of 2025 rallying to historic highs, driven primarily by newer economic developments like high government debt levels worldwide and predictions of fiscal instability.
The war has caused significant oil prices spikes, and the market remains highly volatile as the two nations’ tit-for-tat negotiation style continue to fails to produce a resolution.
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He told Business Insider that the supercycle he sees could put upward pressure on commodities prices for years.
“The key indicators are physical,” he noted, flaggin low inventories and years of underinvestment in infrastructure “A true supercycle shows up when higher prices fail to bring on supply quickly because of supply-side bottlenecks.”
The economist specified that he sees the tech sector underperforming relative to commodities and other hard assets.
In his view, the market has remained fully priced for asset-light businesses while underpricing companies that can help fuel the supercycle that he sees unfolding.
“Even artificial intelligence is not purely digital,” he said. “It requires power, data centers, cooling, land, steel, copper, gas, and grid capacity. Those things super charge the demand for commodities, and the relative return profile of commodities versus tech.”
As someone who began his career in the commodities market, Hanke noted that he prefers futures markets over physical commodities. That said, for the markets with no futures, he recommends exposure to lithium and vanadium producers.
“I have always preferred exposure to commodities via the futures markets,” he said. “In short, if you think crude is going up, do not worry about the complexities associated with analyzing a particular oil company; just go long crude in the futures markets.”