Bitcoin has been hit by fresh volatility this week as SpaceX’s looming initial public offering (IPO) leaves the crypto market on the brink of a massive Elon Musk price shock.
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The bitcoin price has climbed from recent lows of $60,000 per bitcoin, touching $64,000 this week, even as JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon issues a stark crypto warning.
Now, amid predictions that U.S. dollar debasement could power a bitcoin price surge to $1 million, crypto traders are betting the SpaceX IPO will give the company a market capitalization of up to $2.4 trillion, putting fresh “stress” on bitcoin.
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SpaceX and Tesla chief executive Elon Musk could be about to become the world’s first trillionaire, as huge crypto prediction puts a “stress test” on the bitcoin price.
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The SpaceX-linked perpetual contract on Hyperliquid, trading under SPCX, is currently trading at around $175, suggesting a 30% uplift when the stock market opens and a market capitalization for the company of $2.4 trillion, up from the near-$1.8 trillion it had raised on.
The company, led by Elon Musk, has confirmed it had raised $75 billion from investors, pricing shares at $135 each this week.
“The SpaceX perpetual is setting a higher hurdle for traders entering the contract now,” Pratik Kala, a portfolio manager at the digital-asset hedge fund Apollo Crypto, told Bloomberg. “Conversely, traders shorting the perp are effectively betting that the stock’s first-day trading will be tepid.”
With SpaceX’s IPO expected to continue sending ripples through crypto and stock markets, traders are braced for extreme volatility as SpaceX, crypto and artificial intelligence are seen to be competing for the same pool of capital.
“Today’s SpaceX IPO debut is going to be a stress test for crypto markets,” Adam Morgan McCarthy, research lead at crypto liquidity and market data company Lo:Tech, said in emailed comments.
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The bitcoin price has dropped back in recent weeks, though bulls continue to issue sky-high bitcoin price predictions.
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“The capital rotation story has been building for weeks. Retail and institutional money has been moving out of risk assets to secure SpaceX allocation, and that pressure does not disappear the moment trading opens. The open is when you find out whether the overhang was already priced in or whether there is another leg down.”
Interest in SpaceX’s perpetual contracts, or perps, have increased in recent weeks after they correctly predicted the blockbuster debut for artificial intelligence chipmaker Cerebras Systems in May.
Cerebras shares soared 68% on their first day of trading, matching the implied price of the perpetual contracts tied to the company.
“Open interest on Hyperliquid for SPCX perps is above $240 million, which means it’s more liquid than most crypto perps and on par with solana perps on the venue, which is quite impressive considering SOL-USDC offers 20x leverage while SPXC is currently just 5x,” McCarthy said.
“What we are watching closely is whether the volatility creates dislocations in liquidity across onchain venues and how market makers on both sides reprice through the session.”