07/22 update below. This post was originally published on July 21
Bitcoin has climbed to its highest level in more than a month, topping $66,000 per bitcoin just after BlackRock’s chief executive teased a surprisingly bullish prediction.
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The bitcoin price, which has crashed from its all-time high of $126,000 in October last year, has struggled through 2026 as traders await bitcoin’s “ultimate catalyst.”
Now, as U.S. president Donald Trump reveals bitcoin is being used “at levels that nobody understands,” traders have suddenly swung to betting that the long-awaited crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act will be passed this year.
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U.S. president Donald Trump, who has gone all in on bitcoin and crypto, has helped the bitcoin price soar—and crash—over the last two years.
AFP via Getty Images
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market platform are now putting the chances of the Clarity Act—which would see oversight of the crypto market and companies carved up between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), fully opening up the market to Wall Street for the first time—passing into law before April next year at 61%, up from 33% just last week.
The swing comes after U.S. president Donald Trump has reportedly agreed to an ethics provision in the bill, paving the way for it to get a full Senate vote, possibly as soon as next week.
“We are now hearing Trump has agreed to an ethics provision,” an anonymous source told The Block, following on from Crypto in America’s Eleanor Terrett and Punchbowl News‘ Brendan Pedersen, who earlier reported the news, though Pedersen added that Democrats had not seen the text yet, a potential roadblock if they don’t find it goes far enough in preventing politicians from profiting from crypto.
07/22 update: Treasury secretary Scott Bessent declared lawmakers were at the “1-yard line” on the crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act yesterday, in comments reported by Bloomberg, which spurred the bitcoin price and the wider crypto market higher.
The bitcoin price came within touching distance of $67,000 per bitcoin for the first time since early June, adding just over 15% from the lows seen earlier this month.
The newly approved ethics language agreed to by Trump would ban federal officials from issuing cryptocurrencies and put the Justice Department in charge of enforcing the prohibition rather than states, it was reported by The Hill, Crypto In America and The Block.
Trump “has agreed to the most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history,” an anonymous White House official told Coindesk, with the agreement boosting the prediction market odds of the bill passing this year to around 50%.
However, many remain downbeat about the bitcoin price’s prospects this year following its choppy, downward trend through 2026 so far.
“From here, I don’t expect bitcoin to come anywhere close to new all-time highs in 2026,” Robin Singh, the chief executive of bitcoin and crypto platform Koinly, said in emailed comments.
“A move into the low $70,000s looks more likely, but without a major catalyst, that rally could quickly lose momentum and transition back into consolidation. If we do get major pro-crypto catalysts, whether it’s a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, positive outcomes from the U.S. midterm elections, or progress on the Clarity Act, then a move toward $80,000 becomes much more realistic.”
Meanwhile, the White House’s top crypto adviser Patrick Witt, officially the executive director of the president’s council of advisors for digital assets, has said he will no longer take a leave of absence at the end of the month for military training, “right before Clarity hits the Senate floor.”
“I am grateful to report that my training has been deferred, and that I will be able to see this effort through to the end,” Witt posted to X, adding: “Let’s finish the job.”
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The bitcoin price has climbed, feeding hopes the recent bullish bitcoin price predictions might come to pass.
Forbes Digital Assets
The Clarity Act’s shrinking window of opportunity to be passed into law before the U.S. midterms that could hobble the remainder of the Trump presidency is closing, setting the bill up for a “critical” period.
This week, “the Clarity Act enters a critical pre-August recess window,” analysts with the Bitfire Research Institute wrote in an emailed note.
“The bill is on the Senate calendar and needs to reconcile banking and agriculture committee versions while addressing Democratic concerns on stablecoin oversight and anti-money laundering compliance. The August recess is the last realistic window for passage in 2026. Missing it means pushing into the post-midterm lame duck, a much less predictable outcome.”
Earlier this month, the Clarity Act becoming law was branded the crypto market’s “ultimate catalyst” by one analyst, who predicted it could spark a new bitcoin price bull market.
“Large institutions are sitting on the sidelines waiting for regulatory guardrails,” CK Zheng, a former global head of risk for Credit Suisse and now runs the crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, said in emailed comments.
“The formal passage of the Clarity Act into law will be the ultimate catalyst, sparking a new bull market as institutional allocators race to gain exposure out of a fear of missing out.”