Glassnode’s HODL Waves visualize the distribution of bitcoin supply across different age bands. Each colored band represents the percentage of BTC last moved within the time frame shown in the legend.
The recent narrative around bitcoin’s declining price has focused on OG whales (long-time holders with large balances) selling their coins. This is partly true, as highlighted by Galaxy facilitating an 80,000 BTC transaction and other notable movements over the past few months. Bitcoin also crossed the milestone of $100,000 within the past 12 months, a level that likely triggered selling for many investors.
However, Glassnode’s data suggests this selling is not the dominant story. Coins held for 7 to 10 years now account for over 8.1% of supply, the highest level since 2019. While total circulating supply has continued to shrink, the growth in this cohort indicates old supply is accumulating at a faster rate than coins being sold.
The 10 plus year cohort reinforces this trend. They now control about 17% of supply, and their share has only increased over time.
By contrast, the 5 to 7 year holders have seen a decline. They held around 10% of supply at the start of 2023, but this has dropped to just 5%. Many of these coins were acquired during the 2019 to 2020 period, most notably when bitcoin traded near $3,000 during the Covid crash. This group appears to be distributing steadily.
In short, while OG coins are indeed being sold, the broader narrative of widespread old-wallet selling seems to be overstated. The data shows a more nuanced picture, with older cohorts continuing to grow their share of supply even as some mid-term holders take profits.