Historically, Bitcoin has moved in a four-year cycle, with three significant up years followed by a sharp pullback year. According to this cycle, 2026 should be a pullback year, especially considering that the most recent halving occurred in April 2024, over 18 months ago.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin could break this pattern and hit a new all-time high in 2026.
He said, “In our view, the forces that previously drove four-year cycles, the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles.”
The introduction of has opened the door for large capital and new allocations from institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Wells Fargo, which could increase demand.
Grayscale’s research shares this view and predicts that Bitcoin may enter a “new institutional era” in 2026, driven by rising government debt, growing demand for alternative stores of value, and more precise crypto regulation.
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