Bitcoin price climbed 3.5% on Friday, July 10, to nearly $64,000, recovering everything it lost earlier in the week when President Trump warned that strikes on Iran could intensify. The move pushed BTC to a 4.2% weekly gain, its strongest in roughly two weeks. But the rally arrived without institutional backing.
Spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $95M on Thursday, according to SoSoValue data. Ether funds shed roughly $52M the same day, snapping a five-day inflow streak that had been the only consistent source of institutional buying in crypto markets this month. No ether fund posted a single dollar of inflows.
What Drove Thursday’s ETF Outflows
The bitcoin price losses at the fund level were concentrated in two products. Fidelity’s FBTC accounted for roughly $63M in outflows, and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB followed with about $40M. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest spot bitcoin ETF by assets, was flat for the day. VanEck’s HODL and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT were the only funds to post gains.
On the ether side, Fidelity’s FETH led withdrawals at approximately $34M, with BlackRock’s ETHA losing roughly $13M. Bitwise and BlackRock’s second ether fund also finished negative. Total bitcoin ETF net assets sit near $77B, while ether ETF assets hold at about $9B.
The ether outflow matters more than the dollar amount suggests. Ether ETFs had posted five consecutive sessions of inflows heading into Thursday, pulling in roughly $70M on July 8 alone, almost entirely through Fidelity’s FETH. That streak was the steadier side of an otherwise choppy institutional picture. Its end means both bitcoin and ether ETF products are now bleeding capital simultaneously for the first time since the flows diverged earlier in the week.
Why the Bitcoin Price Is Rising Without Fund Flows
The Friday rally did not originate in crypto markets. It came out of Asia, where South Korea’s Kospi index jumped 4% on renewed optimism around AI-related semiconductor demand. SK Hynix priced $26.5B of American depositary shares, one of the largest share sales of the year, reinforcing the AI capital cycle that has driven equity markets since early 2025.
MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities gauge climbed 1.4%. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.6% after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government wants pension funds to increase domestic asset holdings, pulling long-dated JGB yields lower.
The U.S. dollar also weakened for a third consecutive week. That matters because the bitcoin price this week was denominated in a currency losing value. In yen terms, BTC has underperformed, which CoinDesk noted creates a gap between how the rally appears in dollar charts versus how it registers for non-U.S. investors.
This may suggest the current move is being driven more by macro correlation with risk assets and semiconductor stocks than by crypto-specific demand. Research cited in prior 2026 coverage estimates that ETF flows now explain approximately 45% of weekly bitcoin price movements. When price rallies without that structural bid, the move tends to be more fragile, as Bitcoin’s recent recovery past $63,000 demonstrated when gains faded within hours after capital rotated back into AI stocks.
Institutional Money Has Sat Out Most of July
The broader picture reinforces the mismatch between bitcoin price action and institutional positioning. Bitcoin has traded between roughly $59,000 and $66,000 for most of July without breaking either direction. During this range, institutional money has largely stayed on the sidelines.
The month opened with a 10-day outflow streak that drained $2.73B from spot bitcoin ETFs, followed by a brief reversal on July 2 when $221M flowed in after weak U.S. jobs data eased rate-hike expectations. A three-day run through July 5 added another $509M. But by Wednesday, July 8, outflows returned at $85M, and Thursday extended the selling.
Year-to-date, net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs remain at approximately $5.4B. June alone produced roughly $4.5B in net outflows, the worst monthly reading since these products launched in January 2024. The recent recovery, while encouraging, has recouped only a fraction of what exited.
The average spot bitcoin ETF buyer entered at around $83,800, according to Glassnode data. With the bitcoin price near $64,000, the typical ETF holder is sitting on an unrealized loss exceeding 23%. That gap helps explain why inflows have been sporadic rather than sustained. Buyers who are underwater tend to sell into rallies rather than add to positions.
What Other Reports Are Missing
Most coverage of this week’s price action has treated the bitcoin rally and the ETF data as separate stories. The rally gets the bullish headline, and the outflows get the cautious footnote. What deserves more attention is how the relationship between these two data points has changed in 2026.
In 2024 and early 2025, bitcoin price rallies and ETF inflows moved in the same direction. Institutional buying drove price, and rising price attracted more institutional buying. That feedback loop is currently broken. The bitcoin price is rising on macro tailwinds, including dollar weakness, Asian equity strength, and rate-cut expectations, while institutional capital continues to exit through ETF channels.
The week’s price gains occurred across seven days that included an oil shock, a bond selloff, and two rounds of U.S. strikes on Iran. Bitcoin absorbed all of that and still finished higher. But the move was powered by short liquidations and macro positioning rather than fresh spot accumulation.
If the dollar keeps sliding and the AI-driven semiconductor trade holds, bitcoin will likely continue taking its cues from the equity cycle. That’s a different animal from the ETF-driven rallies of 2024, and it means the key support levels around the 200-week moving average will be tested by a different set of forces than traders might expect.
What Happens Next
Two dates carry more weight than anything else for bitcoin’s near-term direction. The first is July 14, when the next U.S. CPI report arrives. May’s reading came in at 4.2%, the hottest in three years. A cooler number would reinforce expectations for eventual rate cuts and could extend the current rally. A hotter print would push hike odds back up and threaten the fragile macro support that bitcoin is currently leaning on.
The second is July 28 and 29, when the Federal Reserve meets under Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets currently give roughly a 70% probability of rates being held. Warsh recently announced five working groups to review Fed policy frameworks, and traders will be watching whether the Fed signals any shift in its inflation outlook before September’s projections.
Meanwhile, Strategy’s recent $216M bitcoin sale, the largest in the company’s history, adds another variable. The company’s entire 843,775 BTC position sits roughly $11.4B underwater at current prices. Whether Strategy resumes buying or continues selling could influence the institutional narrative around bitcoin more than any single ETF data point.
Until the CPI and Fed meeting provide clearer macro signals, the bitcoin price is likely to remain range-bound between $59,000 and $66,000, with ETF flows acting as a structural headwind rather than a tailwind. The rally is real, but the bid behind it is not coming from the institutions that drove the 2024 bull run.
FAQs
Why is the bitcoin price rising despite ETF outflows?
The bitcoin price rally on July 10 was driven by Asian equity strength, particularly a 4% jump in South Korea’s Kospi index, and a weakening U.S. dollar. These macro factors lifted risk assets broadly, while spot bitcoin ETFs continued to post outflows, indicating the rally is macro-driven rather than crypto-specific.
How much have bitcoin ETFs lost in 2026?
Year-to-date net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs stand at approximately $5.4B. June 2026 alone produced roughly $4.5B in net outflows, the worst monthly reading since these products launched in January 2024. Eight consecutive weeks of outflows totaled over $8.2B before a brief reversal in early July.
Why did ether ETF inflows stop?
Ether ETFs lost approximately $52M on July 9, ending a five-day inflow streak. Fidelity’s FETH, which had driven most of the inflows, lost $34M, and no ether fund posted positive flows. The reversal may reflect broader institutional de-risking rather than ether-specific selling.
What is the next catalyst for bitcoin price?
The July 14 CPI report and the Fed’s July 28 to 29 meeting are the two most important near-term catalysts. A cooler inflation reading could support rate-cut expectations and extend the rally, while a hotter number could reverse the current momentum and push bitcoin back toward the lower end of its $59,000 to $66,000 range.