As the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz continues, oil prices rise but are still far from the worst we saw early in the conflict. Investors still expect the situation to find a resolution rather than spill back into an all-out conflict. This morning, we’re hearing that Trump has reinstated an Iran blockade of the Strait with Navy escorts of non-Iranian ships. prices rose +4.5% on the day after this announcement.
Interest rates are rising on the higher oil prices. The is up 6bps to 4.22%, the +6bps to 4.59%. The is now at 5.08%. International bond yields are also jumping. The hit 101 early this morning. Precious metals and crypto are sagging on the higher interest rates and stronger US dollar.
The volatility in semiconductors continues, started by the Korean , dominated by memory chipmakers and , falling 9% today, down 20.6% in a month (though still up 113.5% LTM). Semiconductors are down 2.6% today (-8% in a month), memory stocks down 8.1% (-18.5% in a month). The is down 0.8% (-3.4% in a month). The is down 0.7% this morning (+0.9% in a month). YTD the even-weighted is beating the market-weight, +12.1% vs +10.4% thanks to the underperformance of the Magnificent 7 (+1.9% YTD).
Earnings season is upon us with JP Morgan () reporting tomorrow. Earnings are expected to continue the strong reports we saw in 1Q26 and should help keep stocks near the all-time highs.
The trend remains positive.