Will the stock market finally crash next week?

I’ll be honest, I really thought we’d have seen a stock market crash right now. The headlines are full of dire warnings about the looming energy shock, yet so far, markets have held firm. Is reality about to bite though?

After the initial Iran war correction, which saw the FTSE 100 fall around 10%, investors have held firm. It was the same story after the early Covid, Ukraine and US tariff shocks. Investors who panicked and sold quickly regretted it. This triggered a new narrative. That global markets are so strong, they can shrug off geopolitical shocks.

Investor confidence was rattled last week, with the FTSE 100 falling 2.71% in the five trading days to Friday (24 April).Yet the S&P 500 held firm, amid a strong earnings season. But I’m worried.

Is the FTSE 100 starting to crack?

Before the war, 20m barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through Hormuz every single day. Not now. Up to a billion barrels are in limbo. Even if the war ended tomorrow, it would take months to restore lost supply. Possibly longer.

We haven’t seen fuel shortages in the West. But the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea are all implementing emergency measures, including rationing. It could be our turn soon enough. Mentally, I don’t think we’re prepared. The war also threatens global supplies of aluminium, plastics, rubber, feedstock, fertiliser and microchips.

I think there’s a serious danger that markets may turn nasty in the days ahead. So far, that’s been a losing bet. But I won’t be selling any of my shares. Instead, I’m building up my cash and lining up my targets, just in case.

I’d love to buy Halma at a discount

I’ve been itching to buy FTSE 100-listed global health and safety technology specialist Halma (LSE: HLMA) for yonks. It has a brilliant track record of increasing dividends for 45 years in a row. That suggests a well-run company that’s on top of its game. The Halma share price has done well too, up 60% in the last year.

The trailing yield is a modest 0.52%, but that’s down to its high-flying share price. Over the last 15 years, the board has increased shareholder payouts at an average rate almost 7% a year. The total return on this stock, with dividends reinvested, has averaged 17.8% annually for the last decade. That would have turned a £10,000 lump sum into £51,458.

Halma isn’t cheap. Today, it has a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 42.5. That compares to just over 16 across the FTSE 100. Over the last five years, its P/E has averaged 39.4. No stock is without risk. One bad acquisition could undermine the company. Profits could get knocked by currency fluctuations and tariffs. But if we get a broader stock market crash, and Halma is swept up in it, I’ll swoop to bag it at a discounted price. Even if markets don’t crash, I can see plenty of FTSE 100 bargains I’d love to buy today. Let’s see what next week brings.