There have been a few constants at this year’s Milken Institute Global Conference held at the Beverly Hilton in Los Angeles.
The Rolexes.
The loafers.
The high heels.
The random celebrities walking down a hallway next to an investment banker.
The heightened security presence (which is welcomed).
The massive crowds navigating major construction at the venue.
And no one willing to say the stock market is overvalued.
What’s cooking at Milken: If there’s concern on the Street that the stock market’s record-setting ways amid a host of geopolitical concerns are bubble-esque, I haven’t picked up. Maybe that is a sign of a bubble!
Most finance people I chatted with remain full steam ahead, putting client money to work in the market for the long term. No one has issued a market warning. I wouldn’t say the power brokers are foaming at the mouth to buy more stocks. Consider it more of a controlled optimism based on strong corporate earnings.
I caught up with two guys who know a thing or two about markets: Apollo Global Management president Jim Zelter and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein. (Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.)
“Sometimes things defy logic and reason. So yes, when you think about it, the stock market is supposed to be a forward indicator,” Rubenstein said. “Obviously, people are thinking that the war will be over at some point in the future. That’s the only explanation you could really come up with, why the market is so high when there seems to be so much turmoil.”
He added that “there’s a lot of good things going on in the US economy, where growth is pretty good. Inflation is higher because of the war, but not absurdly.” Rubenstein noted that GDP growth is “reasonable,” productivity is “very good,” and the US is the leader in AI.
“In our traditional private equity business, we’re being very thoughtful about when we put equity under a leveraged capital structure. So I wouldn’t say valuations are extreme. They’re certainly full, and they reflect a lot of optimism, no doubt about it,” Zelter said on markets.
The state of the stock market: The US stock market has staged a stunning record-breaking run this year, driven by a powerful mixture of blockbuster corporate earnings, massive capital expenditure on AI, and resilient economic growth in the face of the Iran conflict. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) recently reached an all-time high of 7,230.12 on May 1.
The rally has brought the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings multiple to 20.9 times, above the five-year historical average of 19.9 times and 10-year average of 18.9 times.
Goldman Sachs recently said that the current valuation multiple is higher than it has been roughly 87% of the time over the past 40 years.
Bottom line: If I have learned anything, it’s this: Stock valuations could stay “cheap” or “expensive” for a long period of time, even in the face of new evidence that would suggest a reevaluation.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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