The market may extend gains for a second consecutive session following a decline in oil prices, but the sustainability of those gains is the key factor to watch amid uncertainty with respect to the Strait of Hormuz. Participants are also keenly awaiting the potential US-Iran talks as the April 22 deadline for the two-week ceasefire approaches. The technical setup remains in favour of bulls; hence, in the case of a rally, 24,500–24,700 are the levels to watch, provided the index surpasses and sustains above 24,400. However, immediate support is placed in the 24,200–24,100 zone, followed by 24,000–23,900 as crucial support. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to decisively surpass 56,800 for a move toward 57,700, while 56,200–55,800 can act as support, according to experts.
On April 17, the Nifty 50 rallied 157 points (0.65 percent) to 24,354, while the Bank Nifty climbed 479 points (0.85 percent) to 56,566, with healthy market breadth. A total of 2,200 shares advanced against 785 shares that were under pressure on the National Stock Exchange.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One
Nifty has now gained for the second consecutive week, rallying over 2,000 points from recent lows and retracing more than 50 percent of the decline from the swing high near 26,000. Market sentiment has clearly improved, and momentum currently favours the bulls, backed by a couple of sustained bullish gaps. Prices have now reached a critical technical juncture, which needs to be decisively crossed for the uptrend to extend further.
A key confluence zone of resistance is placed in the 24,500–24,800 range, aligning with the 50–89 EMA and the 61.8 percent retracement of the recent fall. A sustained breakout above this band would be essential to signal a continuation of the uptrend in the coming weeks. In the near term, until this is breached, some consolidation cannot be ruled out at higher levels.
However, given the recent price action, dips are likely to be bought into, suggesting a continuation of the buy-on-dips approach. On the downside, the 24,000–23,900 zone, which coincides with the recent bullish gap, is seen as immediate support. Below this, the higher bottom near 23,550, aligning with the 20 DEMA, remains a crucial support level.
Broad-based participation has been a key positive, with the Nifty Midcap indices showing notable strength, having already crossed the 61.8 percent retracement level and trading above key moving averages. This indicates that the broader market uptrend is likely to sustain, with stock-specific opportunities continuing to outperform.
Key Resistance: 24,500, 24,700
Key Support: 24,100, 23,900
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 24,200, with a stop-loss of 23,900, targeting 24,700–24,900.
Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities
Nifty closed the recent week with a 303-point gain. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a strong bullish candle with a higher high–higher low structure, closing above the previous week’s high and signalling a positive bias. However, the index is approaching a key resistance at 24,415—the upper band of the March 9 bearish gap. A decisive move above 24,500 could accelerate gains toward 24,762 (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the February–March decline) and the 25,000 level.
On the downside, a break below the 24,000–23,900 zone could trigger a retest of the weekly low at 23,555. From a positional standpoint, the index is building a short-term base near 22,200, where the medium-term upward-sloping trendline since June 2024 continues to act as critical structural support, reinforcing the broader bullish framework. The weekly RSI remains above its reference line, indicating sustained positive momentum. Overall, the trend remains constructive, with developments around the US–Iran talks acting as a key trigger for the next directional move.
Key Resistance: 24,500, 24,650
Key Support: 24,200, 24,100
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 24,250, with a stop-loss of 24,100, targeting 24,550–24,650.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments
Nifty ended the week at its highest point, printing another strong bullish candle and decisively rejecting the weekly bearish fair value gap. This follow-through confirms a shift from corrective to impulsive price action, with higher highs and higher lows being re-established in the short-term structure.
The index is now advancing toward the weekly order block near 24,571, which also aligns with the falling 20-week EMA, making it a critical confluence resistance zone. While this zone is likely to be tested, sustaining above it in the current leg may prove challenging without a phase of consolidation or pullback.
On the downside, the 24,255–24,100 band serves as the immediate demand zone, formed by recent breakout structures and intraday accumulation. Momentum indicators on the weekly timeframe have cooled off from deeply oversold levels and are now forming a higher low, signalling strengthening bullish momentum and an increasing probability of trend continuation in the sessions ahead.
Key Resistance: 24,571, 24,700
Key Support: 24,255, 24,100
Strategy: Avoid chasing gap-up momentum into the resistance zone. Buy Nifty Futures around the 24,300–24,350 zone for a target of 24,570, with a stop-loss below 24,275.
Bank Nifty – Outlook and Positioning
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One
Bank Nifty extended its gains for the second consecutive week; however, price action remained largely range-bound during the period. Technically, the index continues to oscillate within a key confluence zone defined by the 50 and 89 EMAs, which also coincides with the 50 percent and 61.8 percent retracement of the recent decline from all-time highs. This range is placed between 55,800 and 57,200. A decisive breakout from this zone is likely to trigger the next leg of momentum.
Given the current undertone, the bias appears tilted toward the upside, which could push the index towards the 58,000–58,500 levels. Considering the high-beta nature of the index and the ongoing results season, volatility may persist; hence, a buy-on-dips approach is recommended.
Key Resistance: 57,000, 57,800
Key Support: 55,800, 55,500
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 56,000, with a stop-loss of 55,500, targeting 57,800–58,500.
Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities
Bank Nifty ended the recent week with a 653-point rally. On the weekly chart, the banking index has formed a bullish candle with a higher high–higher low structure, closing above the previous week’s high, indicating a positive bias. Technically, a decisive move above 57,000 could trigger fresh buying, driving the index towards 57,700–58,200 levels.
On the downside, a break below 56,000 may lead to weakness, dragging the index towards 55,000–54,400. For the week ahead, Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 58,200–54,400 with a positive bias. Moreover, momentum indicators remain supportive, with both the weekly RSI and stochastic oscillator trending above their reference lines, signalling strengthening bullish momentum.
Key Resistance: 56,700, 57,000
Key Support: 56,350, 56,150
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 56,400, with a stop-loss of 56,200, targeting 56,800–57,000.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments
Bank Nifty ended the week at 56,565, right at the falling 20-week EMA, marking a critical inflection point where trend resistance meets emerging demand. This level now acts as a pivot, with price attempting to transition from corrective to recovery mode. Just above, the weekly gap between 57,097 and 57,696 stands out as a major supply zone, likely to test bullish conviction.
On the daily timeframe, the index has successfully defended the gap support near 55,978, which is now acting as a launchpad and forming the base for a potential upward move into the overhead weekly gap. The structure suggests early signs of accumulation, but confirmation is still pending.
Weekly oscillators have cooled off from deeply oversold conditions and are now positioned for a momentum shift. A failed rejection from the weekly gap would confirm strength and trigger a stronger upside leg. Until then, price action near resistance will determine whether the recovery sustains or fades.
Key Resistance: 57,097, 57,696
Key Support: 55,978, 55,200
Strategy: Avoid chasing momentum into the bearish gap. Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 56,500, with a stop-loss below 56,200, for a target of 57,097–57,700.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.