Sensex Today Live: ‘Markets expected to open on mildly positive note’
“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a mildly positive note, with Gift Nifty trading at 24,011, up by 40 points. Asian markets are trading mostly higher after a strong overnight performance on Wall Street, where technology and communication services stocks led gains, helping the Nasdaq outperform while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh record high. The positive global backdrop may provide early support to domestic equities, although traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry.
In the previous session, the Nifty 50 witnessed profit booking in the latter half of the day and ended around 0.5 percent lower. Despite the decline, the broader market structure remains constructive as the index continues to trade above its short- and medium-term moving averages. However, momentum indicators have started showing signs of moderation, suggesting that the market may continue to consolidate in the near term. The immediate trading range for the index is seen between 23,800 and 24,200, with a breakout on either side likely to determine the next directional move.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, indicating selling pressure near resistance levels and failure to sustain above the recent breakout zone. The index remained above its short- and medium-term moving averages but failed to reclaim the 100-day EMA and slipped below the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally. The RSI eased to 53.89 and moved closer to its signal line, while the MACD continued to remain above the signal and zero lines. However, the green histogram bar narrowed for the sixth consecutive session, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Overall, the trend remains positive, but momentum suggests a sideways consolidation phase.
The crucial resistance zone remains positioned around 24,100–24,200. A decisive and sustained move above this hurdle could revive bullish momentum and pave the way for an advance towards 24,500–24,600. On the downside, the 23,800 level continues to act as an important support zone. A breach below this level may invite fresh selling pressure and trigger a deeper corrective move.
Derivatives data indicates a slightly cautious but still constructive undertone. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) declined to 0.85 from 1.06, reflecting some reduction in bullish positioning. However, the ratio remains above the 0.7 threshold, suggesting that bearish sentiment has not yet gained significant traction. Meanwhile, India VIX rose 4.29 percent to 13.61, signalling a slight increase in market nervousness. Despite the uptick, the volatility index remains below all major moving averages, indicating that volatility is still under control from a broader perspective.
Option chain positioning suggests strong support around the 23,800 strike, where substantial put writing is visible. On the upside, the 24,100–24,200 zone continues to witness notable call writing activity, reinforcing it as the immediate resistance band. A breakout above this zone may trigger fresh buying and short-covering activity.
Bank Nifty also witnessed profit booking and formed a bearish candle on the daily timeframe. Nevertheless, the banking index remains comfortably above all key moving averages, most of which continue to trend upward. The RSI stands at 61.92, remaining above the 60 mark despite generating a bearish crossover. The MACD continues to hold above both the zero and signal lines, though the histogram bars have been shrinking consistently, reflecting moderation in bullish momentum. The broader structure remains positive, but consolidation or range-bound movement is likely in the near term. Immediate support is placed around 57,500–57,300, while resistance is seen near 58,400–59,000.
Overall, the technical setup continues to favour the bulls, although momentum has cooled after the recent rally. The market is currently consolidating within a defined range, and traders may look for a decisive move beyond 24,200 or below 23,800 for confirmation of the next directional trend. Until then, range-bound trade with stock-specific action is likely to dominate market activity,” says Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.