Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
COMEX August gold futures slipped to a two-and-a-half-week low of $3,300 per ounce before closing 0.8% lower at $3,310 on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US dollar. The dollar climbed to a one-week high of 98.66 amid easing global trade tensions as a trade agreement between the US and EU introduced a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles, helped avert a broader trade war.
Also, signs of an extended truce between the US and China, along with expectations that the Fed will keep rates steady at this week’s FOMC meeting, further supported the dollar. Meanwhile, ETFs continued to add gold for the fifth straight session, pushing total holdings to their highest level since July 2023.
Today, gold is trading near $3,315 as markets await key US data releases, including JOLTS job openings and CB Consumer Confidence, while trade talks continue with Canada and South Korea.
WTI crude oil prices surged nearly 3% to $67.1 per barrel yesterday, driven by supply disruption concerns, progress on a US-EU trade deal, and rising expectations that the US and China may extend their tariff truce by another three months. Besides, Trump announced an accelerated deadline for Russia, shortening the original 50-day window to just 10–12 days, moving the truce deadline forward from September 2.
Trump warned of possible “secondary sanctions” if an agreement on Ukraine isn’t reached, sparking fears that rising tensions could threaten global crude supply flows. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ JMMC meeting delivered no surprises, maintaining current production plans. However, the committee flagged uneven compliance among members and instructed countries that missed their targets to submit updated compensation plans by August 18.
Today, oil prices are holding steady near $66.70 per barrel, supported by the renewed pressure on Russia. However, sharp upside may be capped ahead of the US trade deal deadline on August 1 and the official OPEC+ output policy meeting on August 3.