Raymond James Spots Historic Signal for U.S. Stock Market

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

The S&P 500 bull market has officially turned four years old, and Raymond James believes history still points to more upside ahead, even after stocks have already delivered gains well above the typical cycle.

Since the current bull market began, the S&P 500 has gained roughly 117% on a price-return basis, compared with an average gain of about 90% for bull markets that have lasted this long since 1949.

Raymond James CIO Larry Adam argues the backdrop still supports further gains.

He points to limited recession risk, strong corporate earnings and continued AI spending as key supports for the market. Consensus estimates currently call for 15% S&P 500 earnings growth in 2027, while technology-sector earnings are expected to rise about 41%.

Importantly, the earnings story is also broadening. Raymond James expects eight of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors to post positive EPS growth.

Consistent with history, our bull market checklist points to continued gains, Adam said.

Raymond James analysts are also highlighting individual stocks they believe can benefit if the bull market extends.

One is Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY), which analyst Buck Horne rates Strong Buy with a $30 price target, implying roughly 57% upside.

The timber REIT has fallen nearly 17% year to date, creating what Horne views as a significant valuation disconnect. He points to the company trading at roughly a 47% discount to NAV, alongside an approximately 4.5% base dividend yield.

The second is Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG).

Raymond James analyst Daniel Tamayo also rates Citizens Strong Buy, with a $77 price target, implying about 21% upside. He sees improving net interest margins, continued momentum in private banking and capital markets, and solid capital levels as potential earnings drivers.

Investor Takeaway

I think Raymond James’ broader argument matters more than simply identifying two stocks.

The bull market is now entering a stage where investors naturally begin questioning how much upside remains. Yet Raymond James is arguing that the usual late-cycle warning signs are not particularly strong.

Earnings growth remains robust, recession risk is limited and AI investment continues to support technology spending.

But the stock picks also show an interesting shift.

Rather than simply chasing the largest technology winners, Raymond James is finding opportunities in areas such as housing-linked timber assets and regional banking, where valuations potentially leave more room for upside.

For Weyerhaeuser, the key question is whether housing and lumber conditions stabilize enough for investors to close its unusually large NAV discount.

For Citizens Financial, investors should watch net interest margin expansion, private-bank growth, credit quality and capital returns when the company reports earnings on Oct. 16.

If earnings growth continues broadening beyond mega-cap technology, stocks like WY and CFG could become increasingly important beneficiaries of the bull market’s next phase.