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    Tuesday, February 3
    Stock Market

    Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq waver with Wall Street awaiting expected Fed rate cut

    10 Mins Read


    US stocks stalled on Monday, as Wall Street headed into a pivotal week dominated by the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped below the flat line. The laggard start to the trading week comes on the heels of closing gains for stocks Friday.

    Markets are on the lookout for risks to almost-total confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates at its two-day policy meeting, which starts on Tuesday. After a recent surge in optimism, traders now see an 88% probability of a cut in Wednesday’s decision, compared with 67% odds a month ago, per CME FedWatch.

    A tame reading on September PCE consumer inflation kept that conviction alive on Friday, buoying appetite for risk and helping spur back-to-back weekly gains for the major gauges.

    The consensus has emerged despite a split among policymakers, in part over whether to focus on the labor market or inflation — which some at the Fed worry could still be too high. But backing from influential officials for the third cut of this year has cemented bets, though the prospects for 2026 are seen as less certain.

    Given that, this week’s raft of economic data will be keenly eyed, with the labor market in the spotlight after a mixed bag of readings last week. The postponed October report on JOLTS job openings finally arrives on Tuesday to shed light on hiring activity, layoffs, and the pace at which workers are quitting.

    Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) stock surged after Paramount (PSKY) launched a $108 billion hostile bid for the media giant. The last-minute move shakes up plans for Netflix (NFLX) to acquire the company.

    On the earnings side, Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) quarterly results will be in focus on Wednesday, while Broadcom (AVGO) and Costco (COST) headline the proceedings on Thursday.

    LIVE 16 updates

    • The Fed is likely to cut rates for a third time this year. What happens next year is less certain.

      Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger reports:

      After consternation about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for a third time this year, the consensus is that the central bank will likely go ahead with a 25-basis point cut on Wednesday — even if it’s a split decision.

      “This is a hard call,” said Alan Blinder, former vice chair of the Fed and economics professor at Princeton. “[But] I do think it’s more likely they cut than not… It wouldn’t surprise me if this is a ‘hawkish cut.'”

      That is to say, a rate cut this week could come with a caution to markets not to expect the Fed to keep cutting meeting after meeting. Blinder said he also thinks there could be dissenters on both sides of the interest rate decision, given existing divisions within the committee.

      … Ahead of this week’s meeting, a handful of Fed officials have made the case that there is not a strong need to cut rates given concerns about inflation, which remains a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target. Those include Boston Fed president Susan Collins and Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid.

      Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee has also expressed hesitation about “frontloading” too many rate cuts, citing inflation. On the flipside, New York Fed president John Williams, vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee and a member of Fed leadership, strongly signaled a few weeks ago that he could support a rate cut.

      Read more here.

    • Laura Bratton

      Nvidia-backed CoreWeave sees shares sink on $2 billion private debt offering

      CoreWeave (CRWV) shares fell nearly 7% Monday as the Nvidia-backed (NVDA) AI cloud provider said it plans to issue $2 billion worth of senior convertible notes set to mature in 2031, raising the risk that the stock’s value could be diluted.

      Investors buy senior convertible notes, a type of debt, from a company that they have the option to convert into shares if the stock rises above a certain value. When a company issues new shares —or increases the number of outstanding shares — it can reduce the value of preexisting ones, “diluting” them.

      CoreWeave said in its announcement that it will use the proceeds of its debt offering in part to buy financial products called capped call options from banks, allowing the company to receive a payout when its stock rises in order to offset the dilution.

      CoreWeave is one of the so-called “neoclouds” — new, AI-focused cloud firms — seeded by Nvidia that rival the AI chip giant’s other Big Tech firms.

      CoreWeave’s roughly $14 billion in short- and long-term debt, partly backed by its depreciating store of Nvidia’s AI chips, has raised concerns for investors worried over the rising role of debt in the AI data center buildout, as the return on investments in AI infrastructure are hotly debated on Wall Street.

    • Laura Bratton

      Warner Bros. Discovery shares surge on report of hostile bid by Paramount

      Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) stock climbed more than 7% in early trading Monday as Paramount (PSKY) launched a hostile bid to buy the media giant.

      Yahoo Finance’s Jake Conley reports:

      Read the full story here.

    • Structure Therapeutics stock soars on positive results for its GLP-1 pill

      Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) stock rocketed 72% higher just after the open following the biotech company’s positive obesity pill results from a mid-stage study. The stock rose as much as 40% in premarket trading.

      The company announced that its oral GLP-1 pill, aleniglipron, reduced weight loss by 11.3% in patients in a 36-week Phase 2b study. Structure also said that 10.4% of patients discontinued treatment after adverse events at the 120mg dose level, while no patients discontinued treatment at a lower 2.5 mg dose.

      The results pave the way for Structure to advance its GLP-1 pill to late-stage trials in mid-2026.

      “The topline results presented today show that aleniglipron is differentiated and delivered clinically meaningful, competitive and dose-dependent weight loss with a safety profile appropriate for chronic use in a disease that impacts millions of people,” the company’s CEO, Raymond Stevens, said in a statement. “For the higher doses, the observed weight loss data at 36 weeks with no weight loss plateau is potentially best-in-class for oral small molecule GLP1s.”

      Pharma companies have been racing to develop a pill version of the injectable GLP-1 drugs, as pills are cheaper to produce and are likely preferred by patients. Novo Nordisk (NVO), a leader in the space, has already applied for FDA approval of its pill, while Eli Lilly (LLY) is expected to apply for FDA approval by the end of this year.

    • Laura Bratton

      Stocks steady at the market open

      US stocks steadied at the market open on Monday following back-to-back weekly gains for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) as investors looked ahead to the Fed’s policy meeting this week.

      The S&P 500 and the Dow were roughly flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.3%.

    • ‘Lowest-probability outcome’: Netflix’s $72 billion deal for Warner Bros. Discovery stuns Wall Street

      Yahoo Finance’s Allie Canal reports:

      Read more here.

    • IBM to buy Confluent for $11 billion

      IBM (IBM) announced it has officially entered an agreement to buy data streaming platform Confluent (CFLT) for $11 billion.

      IBM will pay $31 per share in cash for the company as it seeks to rekindle momentum in its cloud software business and take a piece of the AI applications market. Confluent stock traded above $23 per share as of Friday’s close.

      Confluent stock soared nearly 30% following the announcement, while IBM shares declined about 1%.

      “IBM and Confluent together will enable enterprises to deploy generative and agentic AI better and faster by providing trusted communication and data flow between environments, applications and APIs,” IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said. “With the acquisition of Confluent, IBM will provide the smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI.”

    • Crude oil falls as traders look ahead to Fed meeting, Ukraine peace talks stall

      Crude oil slipped in early morning trading on Monday as traders anticipated a likely interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week and as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled.

      West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) fell 1.2% to trade below $60 per barrel while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also dropped 1.2% to $62.

      Oil prices dropped after Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that negotiators remain divided on the Donbas territory in peace talks brokered by the US.

      The steady selling also comes as traders price in 89.6% odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting this week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch.

    • Jenny McCall

      Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.

    • Jenny McCall

      Premarket trending tickers: Carvana, Marvell, Rivian

      Carvana (CVNA) stock rose 8% before the bell on Monday following news on Friday that it will join the S&P 500 as part of the index’s quarterly rebalancing. CRH (CRH) also rose 7% during premarket trading.

      Marvell Technology (MRVL) stock dropped 6% in premarket trading on Monday. Stephens analyst Melissa Roberts expected Marvell to join S&P 500 index (^GSPC); however, it was not included.

      Rivian (RIVN) stock fell 3% during premarket trading. The fall follows news that the company will be recalling 35,000 vehicles due to a damaged seat belt pretensioner cable.

    • Buffett’s investment right-hand man to leave Berkshire for JPMorgan

      Investment manager Todd Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) as Warren Buffett prepares his own departure at the end of the year.

      Combs — seen as an investment protege of Buffett’s, per the FT — will take up a role at JPMorgan Chase (JPM), where he is already a board member. He is also stepping away as CEO of Geico, Berkshire said in a statement on Monday.

      “[Combs] has resigned to accept an interesting and important job at JPMorgan,” Buffett said in the statement. “Todd made many great hires at GEICO and broadened its horizons. JPMorgan, as usually is the case, has made a good decision.”

      Berkshire is reshuffling its leadership ranks as it adjusts to losing Combs. Geico COO Nancy Pierce will take over the helm at Geico, the insurance giant that is a key part of the Buffett-built conglomerate.

      The news comes just weeks after Buffett said he was entering a “quiet period” before handing over the CEO position to Greg Abel in 2026.

    • Research veteran Yardeni ends 15-year tech bet with underweight Mag 7 call

      Bloomberg reports:

      Read more here.

    • China’s trade surplus tops $1 trillion for the first time

      China’s exports returned to growth in November after an unexpected contraction in October, pushing its trade surplus in dollar terms for 2025 past the $1 trillion mark for the first time, according to data released Monday.

      The Associated Press reports:

      Read more here.

    • IBM is closing in on $11 billion deal for Confluent amid AI pivot: WSJ

      Shares of Confluent (CFLT) surged around 30% in premarket trading after a report that IBM (IBM) is in advanced talks to buy the data infrastructure company.

      The deal could be announced as soon as Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported, but noted that the discussions could still collapse.

      Customers use Confluent’s platform to process huge streams of real-time data, as used in AI models. If completed, the acquisition would be one of IBM’s biggest deals in recent times, and would play into its push into AI. Shares of IBM were little changed in early Monday morning trading.

      Reuters reports:

      Read more here.

    • Bond traders defy Fed rate cuts, sparking heated debate on Wall Street

      Bloomberg reports:

      Read more here.

    • Silver hovers just below record as exchange funds boost the precious metals price

      Bloomberg reports:

      Read more here.



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