On September 28, 2026, the Tokyo stock market saw the Nikkei Stock Average fall for the first time in 6 trading days.
Following the rise in U.S. stocks at the end of the previous week, buying led the morning session. The Nikkei average rose to 67,034 yen at one point, recovering the 67,000 yen level for the first time in about a month and a half.
However, that was the high for the day.
Profit-taking selling intensified due to the reaction from five consecutive days of gains, and selling expanded across the entire market in the afternoon session. Ultimately, the Nikkei average ended the day at its low of 65,877.62 yen, down 486.58 yen (-0.73%) from the previous trading day.
The key point today is not simply that the Nikkei average fell.
It is that the market turned from morning bullishness to closing at the low, and that funds remained in financial stocks against the backdrop of rising interest rates.
I will interpret today’s market based on these two points.
📊 MARKET DASHBOARD | Today’s Japanese Stocks
Nikkei Average
65,877.62
Change from previous day -486.58 (-0.73%)
TOPIX
4,112.00
Change from previous day -16.59 (-0.40%)
Growth Market 250
791.47
Change from previous day -9.08 (-1.13%)
USD/JPY
Around 157.66 yen (as of 15:00)
Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield
3.085%
Change from previous day +0.010pt
TSE Prime Trading Value
8.2028 trillion yen
TSE Prime Price Movement
Advancing 468 issues
Declining 1,039 issues
Unchanged 46 issues
Not only the Nikkei average, but also the TOPIX and Growth 250 fell. About two-thirds of the issues on the Prime Market declined.
Trading value also exceeded 8 trillion yen, indicating that today was not just a decline in indices, but a day where selling occurred across a fairly wide range.
🔍 Today’s market in 3 minutes
① Morning break above 67,000 yen following U.S. stock gains
The start was bullish.
Stock prices rose in the US market at the end of last week. Following gains in AI-related stocks, buying also took the lead in the Japanese market.
The Nikkei Stock Average opened at 66,505 yen and subsequently expanded its gains.
At one point, it rose by 670 yen from the previous business day to 67,034.74 yen, breaking through the 67,000 yen milestone.
The acquisition of rights for interim dividends also supported the stock price.
However, the trend changed from there.
② Reaction to a 5-day winning streak. Profit-taking sales become dominant
The Nikkei Stock Average had risen for 5 consecutive days up to the previous business day.
It had risen by 850 yen on September 25 alone, and the stock price had increased significantly in a short period.
Therefore, after reaching 67,000 yen, a sense of accomplishment was felt, and profit-taking sales increased.
During the morning session, the Nikkei Stock Average gave back almost all of its gains, and the morning close was pushed back to a slight decline at 66,333.53 yen.
In other words, today was
not a market that was sold from the morning due to bad news, but a market that rose on good news but could not maintain its high price
.
This difference is important.
③ Selling expanded in the afternoon session, closing at the low
The market sentiment weakened further upon entering the afternoon session.
In addition to the domestic long-term interest rate rising to 3.095% at one point, the decline of the South Korean KOSPI, which has a large weighting of semiconductor stocks, also became a burden, and selling spread to semiconductor-related stocks and others.
The Nikkei Stock Average finally closed at 65,877.62 yen.
This is the low of the day itself.
The price range from the morning high of 67,034.74 yen to the low was approximately 1,157 yen.
It was a market where investor sentiment shifted significantly throughout the day, moving from “breaking through 67,000 yen” to “closing at the low.”
🔄 SECTOR & MONEY FLOW | Where did the funds go?
Looking at the 33 industry sectors today, only 4 sectors saw gains.
The top gainers were:
Insurance +0.95%
Banks +0.83%
Electric Power & Gas +0.23%
Services +0.03%
On the other hand,
Pharmaceuticals -1.59%
Pulp & Paper -1.58%
Mining -1.07%
Chemicals -1.06%
Electric Appliances -0.96%
and others declined.
What we want to highlight here is Banks and Insurance.
The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 3.085%.
While rising interest rates are a burden on the stock market as a whole, funds flowed into financial stocks, which are expected to benefit from improved interest margins. Buying has also entered regional bank stocks.
In other words, today’s money flow,
rather than a full withdrawal from stocks, likely included a move to “withdraw some funds from high-priced growth stocks and rising stocks, and reallocate them to financial stocks that benefit from rising interest rates.”
is considered to have been involved.
🔥 STOCKS IN FOCUS | Stocks that moved today
Ibiden | The biggest drag on the Nikkei Stock Average
Ibiden, which had been bought up until last week, fell by over 4%.
It pushed the Nikkei Stock Average down by approximately 69 yen, becoming the top negative contributor to the index.
Advantest, Fast Retailing, and Kioxia HD also pushed the index down.
Since semiconductor and AI-related stocks have been driving the market rise until now, today’s reaction was reflected in the index.
Nidec | Limit down
Nidec was a major mover among individual stocks.
The closing price was 2,340 yen, down 500 yen (-17.6%) from the previous day, hitting the daily limit low.
Some media reported that an extraordinary board meeting had resolved to dismiss President Mitsuya Kishida. Large-scale impairment charges were also reported.
In response, the company commented that it is true that they are considering executive changes and large-scale impairment charges.
Uncertainty regarding management and finances intensified, leading to a surge in selling.
SoftBank Group | Bucking the trend
On the other hand, SoftBank Group supported the index against the decline.
The closing price was 6,283 yen, up 2.16% from the previous day.
Despite the rise of this company, which has a large contribution to the index, the Nikkei Stock Average fell by 486 yen overall.
This also indicates that today’s selling was not limited to just a few stocks.
Rigaku HD | +4.3% on unique news
Rigaku Holdings closed at 1,740 yen, +4.31%.
The announcement that it would establish an “Advanced Technology Development Alliance” with Kyoto University, Hitachi, Shimadzu, JEOL, Horiba, and others was viewed positively.
Even in a generally weak market, funds are flowing into stocks with individual growth catalysts.
📰 Organizing today’s news
The factors that moved today’s market can be broadly organized into four points.
① Higher US stocks at the end of last week
→ Pushed up Japanese stocks in the morning.
② Reaction to the Nikkei’s 5-day winning streak
→ Profit-taking selling after reaching 67,000 yen.
③ Rise in domestic long-term interest rates
→ A burden on the stock market, while a tailwind for bank and insurance stocks.
4. Stall in semiconductor-related stocks
→ Ibiden, Kioxia HD, etc., pushed the index down.
With these factors combined,
“Morning high → Profit-taking → Sector rotation → Selling expanded in the afternoon session”
was the flow of the day.
💡 MY VIEW | How to read today’s market
What is important about today’s market is not just the result that it “fell by 486 yen.”
What I want to focus on is,
the fact that despite breaking through 67,000 yen, it could not maintain that level and closed at the low.
First, as a matter of fact, the Nikkei Stock Average had risen for five consecutive business days until the previous session.
And today, it broke through 67,000 yen, buoyed by the tailwind of higher US stocks.
Even so, buying to chase the upside did not continue, and it was pushed down by profit-taking.
In other words, in the short term, there is a possibility that the number of investors who use “good news as an opportunity for profit-taking” has increased from the phase of “buying more if there is good news.”
However, it would be premature to judge this as an immediate trend reversal for the entire market.
The reason is financial stocks.
As the 10-year government bond yield rose to the 3% range, funds flowed into bank and insurance stocks.
If funds had completely fled from risk assets, it would be a bit different from this movement.
Therefore, organizing today’s movements,
Short-term overheating accumulated due to 5 consecutive days of gains
↓
Profit-taking triggered by reaching 67,000 yen
↓
Even so, funds did not completely escape the market, but moved to other sectors such as finance
↓
What to check next is “whether it is just an adjustment or if the upward trend itself is changing”
is the flow I am thinking about.
The factors for that judgment are US stocks, semiconductors, and interest rates from here on.
🌙 TONIGHT & NEXT | What to watch from tonight to the next business day
1. US stocks, especially AI and semiconductors
Today’s Japanese stocks were initially buoyed by the rise in US AI-related stocks at the end of last week.
In other words, Japanese semiconductor stocks remain strongly influenced by the US market.
This week in particular, the earnings of major US semiconductor company Micron Technology are important.
The company is scheduled to announce its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings on September 30.
The company’s outlook on memory market conditions and demand for AI will be key factors in assessing Japanese semiconductor and memory-related stocks.
2. US employment and economic sentiment
In the US, the JOLTS job openings report and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index are scheduled for September 29.
Furthermore, the ADP employment report and PCE-related indicators are also coming up on the 30th.
If these move US interest rates or the dollar-yen exchange rate, they could also impact the Japanese market.
3. Japanese long-term interest rates
The yield on the newly issued 10-year Japanese government bond was 3.085% today.
Whether interest rates will rise further from here is important.
If interest rates continue to rise, it will be a relative tailwind for banks and insurance companies, while it will likely be a headwind for high-PER growth stocks in terms of valuation.
It seems we are entering a phase where we need to look not just at the Nikkei Stock Average, but also at which sectors capital is shifting to due to rising interest rates.
🎯 Tomorrow’s CHECK POINT
In the next Japanese market, the first thing to check is whether dip-buying will come in at the 65,000 yen level.
And,
・Will semiconductor stocks rebound?
・Will capital inflows into bank and insurance stocks continue?
・Will the TOPIX become relatively stronger than the Nikkei Stock Average?
・Will long-term interest rates rise further in the 3% range?
・Will the 67,000 yen level become a focus again?
It is around here.
Looking only at today’s 486 yen drop, it is a weak market.
However, looking at the details, there are sectors that rose such as banking and insurance, so it is different from a simple, across-the-board risk-off.
That is precisely why the next focus is,
“Is capital fleeing the market, or is it just changing its destination within the market?”
I believe this is it.
In the next market phase, pay attention not only to the ups and downs of the index but also to the destination of capital.
*This article organizes market trends based on publicly available information and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific financial products. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.