Lockton Re has published a new report “Beyond the Headlines: Analyzing Regional Resilience in a Low-Affordability Housing Market”.
The reinsurance broker’s paper highlights headlines on dropping home prices in Florida, Texas, and parts of California, framing the conditions of the current housing market.
Representing over 25% of the US housing market, these three states demand close observation.
The report identifies Florida as the most concerning, where declining affordability, driven by rapid home price appreciation and rising insurance, is suppressing demand and pushing inventory to a decade high.
“Historically, regional housing downturns have been triggered by localised factors,” noted Sean Hannah, co-leader, mortgage and structured credit at Lockton Re.
“While specific state-level challenges can arise, their isolated nature is a positive for those with diversified US mortgage credit risk.”
Joe Koebele, co-leader, mortgage and structured credit, Lockton Re, added: “Our analysis indicates there are some causes for concern, but based on fundamentals a housing crisis does not appear to be imminent in the states we examined.
“While affordability challenges persist and mortgage rates impact existing supply, we anticipate the market will remain stable at current volumes.”
Read the full report from Lockton Re, here.