Chinese flags for sale on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.
Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a possible worsening of the state of China’s property market as it trimmed its growth expectations for the world’s second-largest economy.
In a report published Tuesday, the IMF trimmed its forecast for growth in China for this year to 4.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in its July projection. In 2025, growth is expected to come in at 4.5%, according to the IMF.
The Washington, D.C.-based organization also highlighted that China’s property sector contracting by more than expected is one of many downside risks for the global economic outlook.
“Conditions for the real estate market could worsen, with further price corrections taking place amid a contraction in sales and investment,” the report said.
Historical property crises in other countries like Japan (in the 1990s) and the U.S. (in 2008) show that unless the crisis in China is addressed, prices could correct further, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook noted. This in turn could send consumer confidence lower and reduce household consumption and domestic demand, the agency explained.
China has announced the introduction of various measures aimed at boosting its fading economic growth in recent months. In September, the People’s Bank of China announced a slate of support such as reducing the amount of cash banks are required to have on hand.
Just a few days later, China’s top leaders said they were aiming to put a halt to the slump in the property sector, saying its decline needed to be stopped and a recovery needed to be encouraged. Major cities including Guangzhou and Shanghai also unveiled measures aiming to boost homebuyer sentiment.
China’s Minister of Finance then earlier this month hinted that the country had space to increase its debt and its deficit. Lan Fo’an signaled that more stimulus was on its way and policy changes around debt and the deficit could come soon. The Chinese housing ministry meanwhile announced that it was expanding its “whitelist” of real estate projects and speeding up bank lending for those unfinished developments.
Some measures from the Chinese authorities have already been included in the IMF’s latest projections, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF told CNBC’S Karen Tso on Tuesday.
“They are certainly going in the right direction, not enough to move the needle from the 4.8% we’re projecting for this year and 4.5% for next year,” he said, noting that the more recent measures were still being assessed and have not been incorporated into the agency’s projections so far.
“They [the more recent support measures] could provide some upside risk in terms of output, but this is the context in which the third quarter of Chinese economic activity has disappointed on the downside, so we have this tension between, on the one hand, the economy is not doing as well, and then there is a need for support. Is there going to be enough support? We don’t know yet,” Gourinchas said.
China last week reported third-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.6%, slightly higher than the 4.5% that economists polled by Reuters had been expecting.
In its report, the IMF also noted potential risks to the economic measures.
“Government stimulus to counter weakness in domestic demand would place further strain on public finances. Subsidies in certain sectors, if targeted to boost exports, could exacerbate trade tensions with China’s trading partners,” the agency said.
