China’s property market is sinking againand fast. New-home prices across 70 cities dropped 0.27% in June, the sharpest decline in eight months. Second-hand home values slipped even more, down 0.61%, with all four tier-1 cities registering monthly declines of at least 0.5%. Residential sales slumped 12.6% year-over-yearthe worst this yearand real estate investment is now down 11.2% for the first half, hitting levels last seen at the peak of the pandemic. The sector’s persistent drag is now weighing on broader economic confidence, especially as earlier stimulus efforts begin to lose steam.
Investors were momentarily encouraged last week as whispers of fresh support picked up ahead of this month’s Politburo meeting. That optimism lifted the Bloomberg Intelligence index of Chinese developersuntil it didn’t. The index gave back 3.3% on Tuesday, with Vanke (VNKEF) tumbling 3.6% after warning its first-half loss could reach up to 12 billion yuan ($1.67 billion). It’s the latest sign that even the biggest players are struggling to stay above water. Analysts at UOB Kay Hian flagged a clear trend of market weakening and see a higher chance of new policy signals emerging from the July meeting.
Still, Beijing may not rush in. Some economists think policymakers could hold off on a major packageat least for nowto conserve options in case U.S. tensions resurface after a temporary trade deal expires in August. That puts investors on high alert for any policy language from top leaders in the weeks ahead. For now, the message is clear: the housing market isn’t out of the woods, and the wait for decisive intervention may not be over.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.