- All eyes are on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell’s likely last as Fed chair.
- No major policy change is expected, but every word from Powell’s final press conference could tip expectations for the path ahead.
- Don’t expect drama, but do expect every phrase to move markets.
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting is set to be one of the most closely watched of the year in what is expected to be Jerome Powell’s final policy gathering at the helm of the U.S. central bank.
With markets unanimously expecting the Fed to steady, the real action will be in the statement, the tone of the discussion around the Iran war and , and Powell’s answers at what could be his last post‑meeting .
Here’s what to watch and how markets could react.
Rates on Hold Amid Elevated Uncertainty
Markets and economists overwhelmingly expect the Fed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, where it has stood since last December.
Source: Investing.com
This meeting does not include an update to the or the “dot plot,” so the focus shifts squarely to the post-meeting statement and Powell’s press conference.
Policymakers continue to navigate a complex backdrop: resurgent inflation risks fueled by higher energy prices, a labor market that has shown signs of softening in some areas but remains firm overall, and the broader economic fallout from the Iran-related conflict in the Middle East.
The war has driven volatile oil prices—spiking at times above $100–$110 per barrel—raising concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and feeding into broader price pressures.
Near-term rate cuts appear off the table. Futures markets are pricing in less than one 25-basis-point reduction by the end of 2026, a sharp pullback from more aggressive easing expectations earlier in the year.
Powell’s Final Act
All eyes will be on Powell’s 2:30 PM ET press conference. Reporters are expected to press him on:
- The Fed’s assessment of the war’s impact on inflation, growth, and energy markets.
- Whether he intends to remain on the Board of Governors as a regular Fed governor until his term expires in February 2028, or whether he plans to step down entirely once his chair term ends.
Powell’s term as Chair expires on May 15. President Donald Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed him, and Warsh’s confirmation process advanced this week after a key senator dropped opposition following the resolution of a Department of Justice investigation into Powell.
Market Implications
Stocks: Expect choppiness or modest downside risk if Powell sounds guarded about inflation. The S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs, recently closing around 7,140, with the index having recovered from earlier war-related dips.
Source: Investing.com
The US dollar: A steady or hawkish‑leaning Fed would likely support the US dollar, as rate differentials remain in its favor. Any unexpectedly dovish tone, downplaying oil’s persistence or opening the door to cuts sooner than markets expect, would be dollar‑negative.
Source: Investing.com
Treasuries: A tough line on inflation and no signal of cuts would push short‑term yields higher, flattening the curve if long‑end yields move less or fall on growth concerns. A more balanced or dovish tilt could see yields fall, especially at the front of the curve, as traders price a bit more easing back in.
Source: Investing.com
: A hawkish Fed and stronger dollar can weigh on gold, but war risk and stagflation fears provide important support. If Powell leans more dovish or emphasizes growth risks, gold could see fresh upside.
Source: Investing.com
Bottom Line
In summary, while no policy change is expected, this meeting could mark a significant moment of transition for the Fed amid high inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and leadership questions. Powell’s remarks will be closely parsed for clues about both the policy outlook and his own future role at the central bank.
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Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.