came in right on forecast. y-o-y now stands at +2.5% after coming in at +0.2% for July. While still clearly above the ’s 2% target, the lack of inflation pressure from higher energy prices is providing optimism that further drops in inflation are coming when the conflict with Iran eventually ends. Tomorrow, we get PPI data.
The CPI data moved interest rates lower. The dropped 3bps to 4.18%, the dropped 2bps to 4.66%. Both remain very elevated from pre-Iran levels but are still at levels that are clearly not restraining economic growth.
The AI theme remains strong with CoreWeave () +18.1%, Super Micro Computer () +13.3%, and Lumentum () +10.5% on continued strong demand for data center components.
The market looks only at crude oil prices to determine what is going on with the peace deal in Iran. is essentially flat today, and there is little news on the Iran situation besides the endless rumors of a pending peace deal, despite continued reports of limited attacks in the region. The latest chatter is that there will be an extension of the 60-day ceasefire agreement signed on June 17th, which expires on August 17th.
continue to rise, now back to $4,480/oz, +9.8% in a month. is following, back above $66/oz, +12.2% in a month. is 3% from its all-time high +6.7% in a month. Crypto is softer, with -1.3% in a month. The U.S. dollar index is flat at 99.7, -1.2% in a month.
The trend remains positive, with earnings very strong. AI has questions about when selling tokens will become profitable, but there’s little doubt about continued strength in compute demand and data center demand. Iran remains the key source of new highs when it is resolved, and also the potential source of increased volatility if it drags on into the fall.