reported that 11,250 private jobs were shed by U.S. companies in the four weeks ending on October 25th. This means that the Fed may be forced to cut key if both ADP and the Labor Department report poor payroll data. The federal government shutdown likely hindered private sector job growth due to the fact that furloughed federal workers were likely being cautious. So, it is possible that private sector job growth will improve as the federal government reopens.
Despite an impressive short covering rally in AI stocks at the beginning of the week, typically, the stock market likes to “retest” its recent lows. Although a full retest may not occur due to strong seasonality in November, the key is to watch for moderating volume on the downside to make sure that any retest is exhausting itself. As a result, many stocks will be good buys on pullbacks in the upcoming days.
Bloomberg had a great article about how deflation is enveloping the Chinese economy. Since the first half of 2023 through 2025, home prices in major cities have fallen 27%, BYD cars have fallen 27%, Great Wall wine has fallen 29%, potatoes have fallen 17%, beef shanks and eggs have fallen 14%, and rent in major cities has fallen 9%. When prices are in a seemingly perpetual freefall, consumers tend to postpone their purchases, which in turn curtails economic growth. Complicating matters further, China increasingly has “zombie” companies that cannot pay off their debt, so more pain is ahead. This deflationary spiral is expected to end in a currency devaluation to temporarily boost prices.
Stock investors should all be happy this holiday season. As we get closer to Thanksgiving, the stock market should naturally cheer up, since the holidays are a happy time of year. Furthermore, the negativity about the stock market is getting harder to defend in the wake of the strongest earnings in four years, plus 4% growth. The Wall Street Journal had an article about the “wealth effect” boosting consumer confidence in stock investors. Karen Dynan, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the Treasury Department, said, “The stock market gains are providing an important boost to the economy.”