Investing.com — Bernstein has lifted its outlook for prices in the second half of 2026, citing central bank demand and a Federal Reserve unlikely to pursue an aggressive rate-hike cycle.
The bank adjusted its 2026 gold price target to $4,533 an ounce, with a target of $4,375 an ounce for the second half of the year, while maintaining its price targets through 2030.
Bernstein noted that the inverse relationship between real rates and gold “was clearly evident in Q2 2026,” as real rates rose from 2.00% in early April to 2.28% in late June, pushing gold prices down from $4,650 an ounce to around $4,000 an ounce.
Despite speculation the Fed could raise rates this year following its mid-June inflation forecast revisions, Bernstein stated that its economists “don’t foresee higher Fed Fund rate in the next 12 months,” adding that the Fed may be limited to “no hikes or only 1-2 hikes” given President Donald Trump’s preference to keep rates contained.
The bank expects “limited ETF outflows,” which typically accompany rising rate environments, and pointed to continued evidence of central banks diversifying reserves into gold as its “core bull thesis.”
Citing the World Gold Council’s 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves survey, Bernstein said 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, with a record 45% planning to add to their own holdings.
Bernstein said risks to its outlook include stickier-than-expected inflation, which could prompt more aggressive Fed rate hikes.