It’s been a rough week for the markets, which just a month ago were heralding Trump’s economic and foreign policy agenda, but now have lost $4 trillion in a fast bleed fed by tariffs that many fear could drive a significant economic downturn. And it’s not just tariffs.
Another big gamble for the markets is whether the U.S. economy is heading for recession, or whether the now fragile Trump plan to stop the bureaucratic budget bleed is just an expensive, bumpy downturn that will level off quickly.
Oil is certainly uncertain. And it doesn’t help that the IEA is saying that global supply could exceed demand this year by 600,000 bpd. Oil prices shed another 1% on Thursday, but perhaps things are balancing out.
Commodities are showing signs of starting to trade on fundamentals a bit, instead of just media grunts. But this isn’t going to be a single round of crisis spike followed by leveling out–this is going to be a year of volatile spikes, driven by various dynamics that are all connected.
While on the geopolitical/geoeconomic front, tariffs are driving much of the pain right now, but other surprises may be around the corner for oil, with uncertainty at a high on multiple fronts … from Gaza, Syria and Lebanon to Libya, Sudan, Ukraine, Russia and every country with access to the Red Sea.
For commodities traders, it’s a great time to cash-in on quick bouts of volatility, and we expect it to be a lucrative year in that respect.
It’s been a rough week for the markets, which just a month ago were heralding Trump’s economic and foreign policy agenda, but now have lost $4 trillion in a fast bleed fed by tariffs that many fear could drive a significant economic downturn. And it’s not just tariffs.
Another big gamble for the markets is whether the U.S. economy is heading for recession, or whether the now fragile Trump plan to stop the bureaucratic budget bleed is just an expensive, bumpy downturn that will level off quickly.
Oil is certainly uncertain. And it doesn’t help that the IEA is saying that global supply could exceed demand this year by 600,000 bpd. Oil prices shed another 1% on Thursday, but perhaps things are balancing out.
Commodities are showing signs of starting to trade on fundamentals a bit, instead of just media grunts. But this isn’t going to be a single round of crisis spike followed by leveling out–this is going to be a year of volatile spikes, driven by various dynamics that are all connected.
While on the geopolitical/geoeconomic front, tariffs are driving much of the pain right now, but other surprises may be around the corner for oil, with uncertainty at a high on multiple fronts … from Gaza, Syria and Lebanon to Libya, Sudan, Ukraine, Russia and every country with access to the Red Sea.
For commodities traders, it’s a great time to cash-in on quick bouts of volatility, and we expect it to be a lucrative year in that respect.
