The initial positive sentiment around US-China trade talks faded as the oil market progressed through yesterday’s trading session, with ICE Brent settling almost 0.5% lower. Meanwhile, the market continues to digest the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil flows on Rosneft and Lukoil. And for now, a comfortable supply outlook continues to support the market.
However, one part of the oil market that continues to see strength is middle distillates. The ICE gasoil crack rallied above US$31/bbl, after trading around US$23/bbl mid-month. Meanwhile, the ICE gasoil Nov/Dec timespread surged to almost $20/t backwardation yesterday, though it’s given back some of those gains in early morning trading today.
The latest sanctions on Russia threaten diesel flows, as Russia exports around 1m b/d of diesel. So clearly, a significant amount of supply is at risk. Furthermore, there is also the risk that Indian refiners reduce run rates if they stop buying Russian oil. This would lead to lower middle distillate export volumes from India. In addition, the Ukrainian president has said that Ukraine will increase the scale of attacks on Russian refineries, posing further supply risks to the middle distillate market. There have been concerns about tightness in the middle distillate market for several months now, and the potential impact of these sanctions will do little to ease them.