Oil prices were unable to extend their 4-day run of gains, with ICE Brent coming under pressure yesterday to settle 2.3% lower. There was no single catalyst for yesterday’s move. However, the recent run-up in the market was starting to become increasingly detached from fundamentals, which are more bearish.
US President Trump’s 25% secondary tariffs against India come into effect today, taking the total levy on US imports from India to 50%. The secondary tariff has not been enough to stop India from buying Russian oil. Initially, secondary tariffs saw Indian refiners pause purchases. They have resumed purchases. The market will be watching Russian oil flows to India closely going forward to gauge the impact, if any, of secondary tariffs.
Meanwhile, numbers from the American Petroleum Institute overnight were fairly neutral, with US crude oil inventories falling by 1m barrels over the last week. Gasoline and distillate stocks saw declines, falling by 2.1m barrels and 1.5m barrels, respectively. The draw in distillate stocks was slightly supportive for the middle distillate market, particularly given that we are in a period where stocks usually grow. Overall distillate stock levels remain below the seasonal 5-year average. The more widely followed Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report will be released later today.