Silver may hit $50 per ounce over the long term, gold to consolidate before next rally: Metals Focus

Silver’s rally has surprised markets, climbing to $42.5 per ounce much faster than expected and nearing all-time highs. Harshal Barot, Senior Consultant – South Asia & Middle East at Metals Focus, told CNBC-TV18 that $45 per ounce could act as a “psychological resistance,” but added that “$50 per ounce cannot be ruled out, which would be close to the all-time highs, or even a new all-time high.”

On gold, Barot expects near-term prices to touch $3,800 but warned of “overbought conditions” and possible sideways movement as Fed rate cuts are already priced in. However, he remains bullish on the long-term outlook, citing geopolitical risks, trade tariffs, and continued central bank buying.

Silver is also finding strong support from global demand, especially from industrial use in photovoltaics where China dominates. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has been buying silver ETFs, while sentiment around commodities is improving on a weaker dollar outlook. “Silver has been in a deficit for the last three years,” Barot said, adding that fundamentals point to further upside.

Investment demand across precious metals is surging, running in double digits higher than last year. Jewellery demand, however, is down 10–20% in volumes, though retailers are cushioned by consumers shifting to lower carat gold like 18K and 14K.

Gold imports this year could fall in the 600–700 tonne range, lower than earlier expectations of 800–900 tonnes, while silver imports are expected to normalise at 4,000–5,000 tonnes annually.

Despite gold prices being up 40–50% year-on-year, festive season demand has returned. “Consumers don’t adjust budgets as quickly as gold prices rise, but within their budgets, they are definitely buying,” Barot said.