Gold staged a dramatic recovery on October 22, climbing to $4,159 per ounce after two days of heavy selloffs that included significant outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
The October 22 rally put the price of gold up nearly 60% this year, though it has recently settled closer to $4,000.
The volatility of gold captures a change in global markets—according to research firms and economists—one driven by fears of weak global growth, trade flare-ups, and inflation. Research from the World Gold Council suggests that this year’s rally has been led by investors worldwide seeking safety amid geopolitical tensions, dollar weakness, and fears of a stock market correction. Central bank buying has helped too, both in stimulating demand but also communicating a positive narrative on gold.
The People’s Bank of China has been the most notable gold buyer, adding about 39 tons through 11 consecutive months of purchases. But China isn’t the only fiat authority amassing bullion. Poland, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan are the largest buyers of gold as of August, the latest data available from the World Gold Council. Central banks of Turkey, the Czech Republic, and Cambodia are also notable buyers. The list of net sellers is few. Uzbekistan, Singapore, and Russia are the largest sellers of gold so far this year.
Tony Nash, CEO of AI forecasting firm Complete Intelligence and co-founder of the geopolitical blog Cloak and Dagger, argues that China has a strong hand in the price of gold. His research shows that the People’s Bank of China is buying as a defensive posture as Beijing prepares for the possibility of currency devaluation amid slowing growth and trade tensions. The 90-day US-China tariff truce ends on Nov. 10. “Very few people acknowledge this, but gold markets are a kind of proxy for the intensity of the trade dispute between the US and China,” Nash explains.
He sees the price of gold normalizing if ire between Beijing and Washington quiets. “As we approach a more agreeable situation in the US-China trade relationship, we’ll see a renormalization of gold prices,” he predicts.
Vladimir Signorelli, founder of Bretton Woods Research, points to the conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine as pivot points for gold. He also believes a tempering of tariff shocks could help to stabilize prices. In late October, JPMorgan Chase analysts forecasted that gold prices would continue their climb—reaching an average of $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026.