Gold delivers over 40% returns in 2025: Motilal Oswal sees more upside amid global uncertainty

Gold has emerged as one of the best-performing asset classes this year, with prices delivering more than 40% returns on MCX and nearly 48% on COMEX, according to Motilal Oswal’s latest Gold Quarterly Review. The yellow metal has outshone equities, bonds, and other commodities, supported by geopolitical tensions, tariff disputes, and expectations of global rate cuts.

Key highlights from the report:

• Strong momentum: Gold started 2025 with sharp gains and has sustained its rally on the back of safe-haven demand.
• Drivers of the rally: Geopolitical conflicts, US-China tariff battles, and resilient ETF inflows have kept investor interest intact.
• Central bank support: Though central bank buying has slowed in 2025, it continues to lend stability to prices.
• Silver shines too: Silver outpaced gold in some months, delivering over 40% returns year-to-date, making it a close competitor.

Outlook: Buy on dips

Motilal Oswal expects the bull run to continue, albeit with intermittent corrections. The brokerage suggests a staggered investment approach, highlighting profit-booking opportunities if gold dips by 5–7% from current levels.

• Domestic targets: ₹1.13 lakh to ₹1.20 lakh per 10 grams (with USD/INR at 88).
• Global targets: $3,800 to $4,000 per ounce on COMEX.
• Support levels: ₹99,500–₹1 lakh per 10 grams.

Risks to watch

While the long-term outlook remains positive, the report flags potential threats such as stronger US dollar, higher real interest rates, and easing geopolitical risks that could cap gains.

Physical demand, particularly in India, has also slowed amid elevated prices.

“Falling inflation and rate cut expectations are supporting bullion. Gold remains a hedge against uncertainty, and investors should maintain a buy-on-dips stance for medium to long term,” the report noted.