While rainfall has been above normal overall, Gupta cautioned that its distribution remains uneven, with deficits in regions like Marathwada, and patchy rains in parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra. “Spread of rainfall is more important to witness for us,” he explained, suggesting that regional disparities could still affect crop yields.
A key takeaway this season is the likely shift in cropping patterns, particularly in favour of maize. Despite weak price support for other staples like pulses and oilseeds, maize remains attractive to farmers. “Farmers will go for the aggressive crop… and that is maize,” Gupta said, projecting a 15–20% increase in maize acreage in Central India and 6–7% at a pan-India level.
The economics behind these shifts are sobering. Gupta pointed out that most commodities are trading below the minimum support price (MSP). “Minimum support price is not minimum, it’s the maximum sale price possible for farmers at the moment,” he said, underscoring the limited procurement by the government and weak market signals. This has left farmers with few viable choices beyond crops like maize that offer relatively better returns.
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Policy decisions are also influencing crop choices. Gupta flagged that recent changes in government policy—specifically the release of rice to ethanol plants—have taken away a key price driver for maize. Yet, maize remains resilient due to its yield potential and growing demand in ethanol production. “India is consuming 18 million tonne of grains more year on year because of the ethanol blending programme,” Gupta pointed out, adding that this demand surge has gone largely unnoticed in food grain estimates.
With food grain production targeted at 354 million tonne for 2025–26, up from 332 million tonne in 2023–24, Gupta questioned the realism of these projections given the rapid rise in domestic consumption and limited export activity. “We are not exporting much… that means India is consuming a lot more grains than they were,” he said, stating that even with statements about doubling maize production by 2047, “we are going to double our consumption in the next nine to ten years.”
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For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video