Commodities surge as crypto stagnates
As we approach the final trading days of January, Bitcoin and Ethereum are poised to end a three-month losing streak.
Bitcoin has climbed approximately 1.8% month-to-date (MoM), trading just above $89,000, while Ethereum is up 1.34%, hovering around $3000. While these modest gains mark a welcome shift, the subdued nature of the rebound underscores the ongoing malaise plaguing the sector since the crash in October.
In stark contrast, energy and metals have ignited the new year with explosive returns reminiscent of crypto’s past glory days. Natural gas has surged an eye-watering 87.58%, silver is up 60.38%, platinum has jumped 31.2%, heating oil is 27.8% higher, and gold has gained 19.47%.
This disparity suggests that the speculative ‘hot money’ once drawn to crypto’s high-octane volatility has migrated to these red-hot sectors. Commodities are currently benefiting from a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, export restrictions, and national stockpiling. A broader ‘flight to quality’ is amplifying the appeal of tangible assets over digital ones.
Crypto’s uncertain path forward
Looking ahead, if these themes persist into 2026, crypto could remain dormant. For a true resurgence, the sector needs fresh catalysts, such as further institutional adoption or macroeconomic shifts like interest rate cuts and easing geopolitical uncertainty.
Without them, Bitcoin and Ethereum risk lingering in the shadows while traditional commodities continue to steal the spotlight.
Bitcoin technical analysis
The approximately 21.5% rally from the 21 November $80,537 ‘capitulation low’ to the mid-January $97,939 high displays corrective qualities, which implies the rally is countertrend (Wave IV within the Elliott Wave framework).
This suggests that Bitcoin will likely retest and potentially break the $80,537 November low (for Wave V), with scope towards the Liberation Day lows at $75,000.
To negate the negative short-term outlook, Bitcoin would need to first return to the safety of the trend channel it broke lower from last weekend. To see a more decisive shift to a positive medium-term bias would require a sustained break and close above the 200-day moving average (MA) currently at $104,700.