Gold is expected to enter a consolidation phase in 2026, with prices averaging approximately $4,300 – 4,400/oz. While the de-dollarization narrative is expected to persist – potentially even accelerate amid rising uncertainty surrounding US geopolitical policy and the redefinition of the global order –this supportive factor is likely to be offset by moderating demand dynamics.
Central bank purchases are expected to slow in tonnage terms, as sharply higher prices constrain purchasing capacity. In parallel, jewellery demand is weakening, with clear evidence of demand destruction, a trend that has instead supported platinum. Additionally, as policy rates approach the end of the tightening cycle, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes less punitive, but no longer materially supportive.
Silver faces more pronounced downside risks. With approximately 65% of demand linked to industrial usage, the outlook is closely tied to macro and manufacturing trends, particularly in China. Chinese solar installations alone account for roughly 10% of global silver demand, and the country has already met its 2030 solar capacity targets. A slowdown in incremental demand from this source is therefore expected.
Silver’s higher volatility relative to gold, combined with tariff-related uncertainty – particularly around Section 232 – has contributed to elevated prices. As tariff uncertainty potentially peaks this year, including possible clarification via judicial rulings, this premium is expected to unwind, resulting in lower silver prices.