The model also assumes a reserve pivot. In that scenario, central banks allocate a portion of assets to Bitcoin. VanEck estimated a 2.5% central bank allocation in the base case. At a $2.9 million price, it forecasts Bitcoin would represent about 1.66% of world financial assets.
The valuation table uses an approximate of $88,000 on December 31, 2025. VanEck uses that baseline to compute implied growth rates.
For asset allocation, the paper suggests a 1% to 3% strategic position for diversified portfolios. It also notes that higher-risk portfolios historically optimized Sharpe ratios with allocations up to 20%.
VanEck also published long-run risk inputs for institutional models. It set expected volatility in a 40% to 70% annualized range and described low-to-moderate correlations to major asset classes.
VanEck’s research links Bitcoin’s long-run returns to liquidity measures such as global M2. It reports that changes in M2 explain more than half of Bitcoin’s price variance in its analysis.
The authors also discuss a historically negative relationship with the US Dollar Index. They say that inverse correlation moderated in the current cycle.