Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor has indicated another purchase of Bitcoin (BTC).
The signal comes as current market sentiment remains in extreme fear.
In the meantime, Bitwise Alpha head Jeff Park says Bitcoin’s upside remains limited. He explained that this is because early holders selling BTC options.
Michael Saylor Signals BTC Confidence With Fear Sentiment Growing
Strategy executive chairman has posted “more orange dots” on X, which translates to new Bitcoin purchases. Strategy is the biggest corporate Bitcoin shareholder in the world.
According to data from StrategyTracker, the company possesses more than 708,000 BTC. This is estimated to be worth approximately $59 billion at the current BTC price of $89,273.
It also has a very low average cost of acquisition compared to the current market, which highlights its conviction in the coin over the long term. While Saylor’s post hint at continued confidence in the coin, market sentiment indicates otherwise.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen below 21 which places the market in extreme fear. Readings have stayed close to that level over a few weeks, reflecting the consistent caution traders.
Why Aren’t ETF Inflows Lifting Bitcoin’s Price?
Such a disconnect indicates a more fundamental problem with the BTC market structure. According to Park, the inability of BTC price to trade higher is due to additional sales by early adopters of Bitcoin who often sell call options which add to the circulating supply.
Bitcoin ETFs continue to absorb spot supply although this has not reflected significantly on price. This is consistent with the current institutional skepticism. An example is Vanguard calling BTC a toy despite allowing its customers to invest in Bitcoin ETFs.
Park continued his analysis saying that there is a sharp separation between options for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and that of native. According to him, the call skew observed in IBIT is positive which means upside protection that is priced at a premium.
Derivatives Data Confirms the Range-Bound Movement of Bitcoin
Park is of the opinion that the IBIT option demand must be more than the supply for native Bitcoin option to sustain any upside. However, if volatility supply is not eased and the demand for ETF-linked options do not pick up, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound.
Derivatives data also validates this story. CoinGlass indicated Bitcoin futures trading volume decreased by 24% to approximately $49 billion.
The drop is an indicator of less speculation and declining confidence over the short-term. Nevertheless, broader BTC adoption keeps rising, with PNC partnering Coinbase to allow Bitcoin trading across its network in the U.S.
During the same period, open interest increased 3.2% to about $60.7 billion. Increased open interest and declining volume is a common sign of positioning but no momentum.