Bitcoin (BTC +1.18%) is currently trading at $73,000. That’s 42% off its all-time high of $126,000 from October and well below where anyone thought it would be in 2026.
Yet optimism hasn’t disappeared. Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen, a unit of Toronto-Dominion Bank, still thinks Bitcoin could hit $140,000 by the end of the year.
Could Bitcoin really double in value this year? And, if so, what’s the best way to position yourself for Bitcoin’s upside?
Bitcoin historical evidence
At first glance, the prospect of Bitcoin doubling in value in the span of just nine months might sound like pie-in-the-sky thinking. After all, Bitcoin is taking a serious beating right now and currently shows few, if any, signs of breaking decisively above the $75,000 price point.
Today’s Change
(1.18%) $889.03
Current Price
$76332.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.5T
Day’s Range
$75201.00 – $78240.00
52wk Range
$60255.56 – $126079.89
Volume
80B
But here’s the thing: Bitcoin has shown the ability to double in value with astonishing regularity over the past decade, even as recently as 2023 and 2024. In 2023, Bitcoin soared by 157%.
In 2024, Bitcoin cranked out a gain of 125%.
Image source: Getty Images.
Going forward, TD Cowen is increasingly hopeful that Bitcoin will reacquire its cachet of being “digital gold.” If so, Bitcoin could emerge as the long-term store of value that investors are looking for in 2026.
Data from prediction markets
So just how realistic is the prospect of Bitcoin hitting $140,000 this year? To answer that question, it’s worth considering data from online prediction markets, where traders are actively betting on the future price of Bitcoin.
On both Kalshi and Polymarket, Bitcoin is currently assigned an 11% probability of reaching $140,000 in 2026.
Those aren’t great odds — but are certainly better than what many now might assume. In effect, prediction markets are betting Bitcoin has roughly a 1-in-10 chance of doubling in value this year.
Should you invest in Bitcoin treasury companies?
According to TD Cowen, one of the best ways to get exposure to Bitcoin’s upside is via Bitcoin treasury companies. In fact, the sky-high new Bitcoin price target coincides with the firm’s initiation of research coverage of three publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies.
TD Cowen thinks these Bitcoin treasury companies have the chance to outperform Bitcoin. That’s something I don’t agree with at all. From my perspective, it’s far better to buy BTC directly on a cryptocurrency exchange or indirectly via a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The reality is that a growing number of Bitcoin treasury companies now trade for less than the value of their Bitcoin holdings. If a company’s only real strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin, that discount sends a clear signal. It suggests investors are valuing the business at less than its underlying assets — essentially offering you a way to gain Bitcoin exposure indirectly at a discount.
In light of this, now could be the time to accumulate Bitcoin. It’s trading at a huge discount to its price from just six months ago. My main concern is Bitcoin could drop much further before it recovers.
So, if you’re planning on buying Bitcoin now, buckle your seat belt. The road ahead could be extremely rocky.