Bitcoin has swung wildly as a sudden dive below $100,000 per bitcoin sparks fears of a devastating bitcoin price crash.
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The bitcoin price—which remains slightly up on this time last year, just before it first topped the psychological $100,000 level—has struggled to maintain its 2024 election velocity (even as traders brace for U.S. president Donald Trump to deliver a bitcoin price shock).
Now, as Goldman Sachs issues a Federal Reserve warning over the state of the U.S. economy, analysts with Wall Street giant JPMorgan have called the bitcoin price bottom—reiterating a 2026 bitcoin price prediction that could see bitcoin challenge gold’s $28.3 trillion crown.
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U.S. president Donald Trump has embraced bitcoin and crypto, helping power a bitcoin price boom that’s stalled in recent months.
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“The bitcoin production cost has empirically acted as a floor for bitcoin, so a $94,000 production cost implies very limited downside to the current bitcoin price,” JPMorgan analysts wrote earlier this month in a note seen by Coindesk.
The bitcoin price dropped sharply to just over $94,000 per bitcoin this week from an October peak of $126,000, meaning that if that level holds, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou would have called the precise recent bottom.
Bitcoin’s estimated production cost—a calculation of how much bitcoin’s so-called miners who secure the network and process transactions spend to be rewarded with new bitcoin—has historically acted as a floor for the price in times of sell-offs.
Earlier, JPMorgan analysts wrote that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has drifted lower, “implying a theoretical bitcoin price of close to $170,000” at some point in 2026 as bitcoin catches up to gold’s more than 30% rally over the last few months.
Gold has rocketed to a $28.3 trillion market capitalization this year, compared to bitcoin’s $1.2 trillion.
This “mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for bitcoin over the next 6-12 months,” JPMorgan analysts wrote.
The gold price has surged this year, far outpacing bitcoin and most other assets, as traders bet on the so-called “debasement trade” that’s expected to undermine currencies including the U.S. dollar in coming years.
The gold-boosting debasement trade has been exacerbated by U.S. president Donald Trump’s huge spending plans and continued push for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and looser monetary policy.
Trump increased U.S. government spending and cut federal taxes in his “big, beautiful bill”, passed by Congress in the summer, resulting in heavier reliance on borrowing to fund annual spending as he targets growth to escape a “debt death spiral.”
Earlier this month, Tesla billionaire Elon Musk warned it’s not possible to solve the U.S. debt crisis without growing the economy at a fantastic pace—something that bitcoin supporters think will blow up the bitcoin price.
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The bitcoin price has dropped sharply from its all-time high of $126,000 per bitcoin—though JPMorgan analysts have called the bitcoin price bottom.
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Meanwhile, many bitcoin and crypto market watchers continue to feel upbeat despite the recent bitcoin price volatility.
“JPMorgan had just released a report saying that support is at $94,000, while reiterating that their $170,000 six month-to-12 month price target still intact … While price action may be bearish for now, overall it has been a very good year for crypto in terms of regulation and institutional adoption,” Zhong Yang Chan, head of research at CoinGecko, said in emailed comments.
Zhong Yang Chan pointed to bullish factors including the growth of bitcoin and crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), crypto treasury companies led by bitcoin-buyer Strategy, stablecoins adoption and a Wall Street push to asset tokenization, led by BlackRock, as supporting the bitcoin price.
“Bitcoin has retested its key support zone and is currently holding firm, while the next major support level remains intact—signaling continued technical resilience even amid macro headwinds,” CF Benchmarks head of research Gabe Selby said in emailed comments, referring to recent uncertainty over a December Federal Reserve interest rate cut.