Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market remains one of the most severe in its history. After peaking near $69,000 in November 2021, BTC declined to roughly $15,500 in November 2022, marking a drawdown of approximately 77%.
In comparison, the current decline of approximately 47% is significantly smaller than the 2022 crash.
It also falls short of the 2018 bear market, during which dropped about 84% from $20,000 to near $3,200, according to Coin Metrics.
The has plunged to an “Extreme Fear” level at 12, a reading last seen after the FTX collapse.
From a purely percentage-based perspective, the latest plunge is not the largest since 2022.
The historical comparison gains weight when we examine the specific market indicators. The parallels are not just in price action but in the underlying positioning and structure that defined the late 2022 collapse.
The current setup, with negative funding rates that persisted for over 11 consecutive days and notional open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, reflects a market where traders are unwinding longs and hedging against further declines.
A proprietary regime indicator from research firm K33 confirms the similarity. Its model, which synthesizes derivatives yields, open interest, ETF flows, and macro data, shows “strikingly strong similarities” to periods in September and November 2022, both near the global bottom of that downturn.
The firm’s analysis suggests this typically leads to prolonged consolidation, not immediate recovery, with average 90-day returns of only about 3% in strongly similar historical environments.