PrimeXBT has provided insights into the current Bitcoin price action and stated that the FOMC decision could determine the leading crypto’s next major move. This comes as liquidity conditions align for BTC for the first time since it peaked in October 2025.
FOMC Decision To Define Bitcoin’s Next Major Move
In a market analysis, PrimeXBT’s senior market analyst Jonatan Randin stated that macro factors such as the FOMC decision, advance Q1 GDP, March PCE, and a wave of mega-cap earnings will likely decide whether BTC’s current price action is a genuine regime change or a relief rally running into supply. The leading crypto notably rallied above $79,000 over the weekend, providing optimism that the bull market may be returning.
However, PrimeXBT indicated that whether the bull market is returning depends on the macro events this week, calling it arguably the “most important for BTC.” The FOMC meeting will be the first of these events, with the Fed set to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow. Furthermore, four of the ‘Magnificent Seven,’ Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, report their Q1 earnings this week, while the PCE and GDP data drop on April 30.
A positive for Bitcoin is that liquidity conditions are improving, according to the PrimeXBT analyst. The analyst noted that liquidity serves as a tailwind only when its growth rate is positive, volatility is compressing, and positioning has been cleared. Randin claimed that these conditions are all starting to align for the first time since the October 2025 peak.
“Whether that alignment holds is genuinely uncertain,” the analyst said. Randin alluded to the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which could cause inflation to reaccelerate if oil rises back to $115. At the same time, the Fed could deliver a hawkish rate pause tomorrow that resets rate cut probabilities again, which is bearish for the Bitcoin price. The analyst also warned that if any of the current liquidity conditions were to fray, the lower highs and lower lows from October would remain in force.
From A Technical Analysis Perspective
From a technical analysis perspective, PrimeXBT stated that a successful breakout above the $79,000 region would push BTC into the resistance zone between $80,000 and $85,000. However, the analysis noted that technicals indicate caution.
Firstly, Randin noted that there are no signs that the Accumulation/Distribution indicator is breaking out, signaling that sustained institutional purchases have yet to confirm an upward move. Secondly, the volume remains relatively thin while a bearish RSI divergence forms, with Bitcoin’s price making higher highs while the RSI makes lower highs, right at the 0.5 Fibonacci level, approaching resistance.
It is worth noting that CoinGape reported that veteran trader Peter Brandt predicts sustained upside momentum for Bitcoin, with the leading crypto set to reach new highs in the short term. However, he warned that BTC is unlikely to reach $250,000 by year-end.
PrimeXBT stated that for the price to push meaningfully higher, Bitcoin could need an additional catalyst. Specifically, the FOMC decision and mega-cap earnings could serve as catalysts if the tone is risk-on. “A failure to break above this zone could see price retest the $70,000 support area, with the late-March lows around $66,000 the next level of interest below that,” Randin warned.