CHONGQING, CHINA NOVEMBER 21: In this photo illustration, two gold-colored Bitcoin tokens are placed on a smartphone screen displaying a sharply declining BTC-USD price chart on November 21, 2025, in Chongqing, China. Bitcoin recently fell below the mid-US$80,000 range as renewed market volatility, macroeconomic uncertainty, and sustained outflows from crypto investment products pressured digital-asset valuations. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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The analyst who warned clients against buying bitcoin at $120k says current prices present a buying opportunity, even as industry veterans turn bearish on 2025.
Bitcoin sits at $87,500 after shedding 21% in a month, touching lows of $82,000 on November 21st. The mood has shifted. But one analyst who saw this coming thinks the pessimism has now gone too far.
The Non-Consensus Call That Landed
Fefe Demeny, a crypto analyst, posted his bearish thesis on October 17th when bitcoin traded near $110,000. His trigger, he explained, had been the same for years: a break in daily structure on total market cap signals the end of a bull cycle.
“Every time we’ve seen a clear rejection followed by a lower low on the daily chart, it has marked the end of the bull cycle,” he wrote. “This time is no different.”
He acknowledged that classic cycle-top indicators had not flashed. The MVRV-Z score, one of his main signals, showed nothing alarming. But he refused to abandon his framework. He sold anyway.
The subsequent crash vindicated his approach. Bitcoin dropped from those highs to current levels, wiping out late buyers who ignored the warning signs.
Is It Time For A Bitcoin Reversal?
On November 23rd, with bitcoin trading near current prices, Demeny posted again. His message was brief:
“To everyone who called me about BTC wanting to buy at 120k, and I said ‘don’t do it.’ This is your time. Buy now.”
The same framework that told him to sell into euphoria now tells him to buy into despair. His October post had predicted this sequence: sideways chop, a final push higher that would flood the timeline with calls for new all-time highs, then the real decline. He planned to catch the bottom and ride the wave up while everyone else remained drunk on price action.
Whether current prices represent that bottom remains uncertain. But his willingness to reverse after a 21% decline suggests his framework sees opportunity where others see danger.
The Bearish Consensus
Demeny stands among growing institutional pessimism. Paul Howard, a senior director at Wincent, represents the skeptical view taking hold among professionals.
“There is a line of thought not many want to admit that BTC prices have peaked and not just for 2025,”
Howard wrote recently. He pointed to where institutions are actually deploying capital: stablecoin liquidity, not bitcoin appreciation, looks like the killer use case of cryptocurrency.
Howard sees long-term holders liquidating and positive news failing to move prices. For traders focused on four-year cycles and technical indicators, he argues, the math no longer works. Adoption has been outpaced by extraction. He expects extended consolidation below the all-time high, with anticipated year-end selling adding further weight.
The Signals Everyone Missed
This photo illustration shows the representation of the $Trump meme coin in Brussels, Belgium, on February 13, 2025. (Photo by Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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A viral tweet from YUGA.ETH, garnering over one million impressions, asked what should have been obvious in hindsight: “What were the top signals we were supposed to notice?”
The responses cataloged the excess. A sitting president launched a memecoin. His son launched a DeFi protocol. Metamask announced a token. Memecoin mania consumed attention. Bitcoin ran from $15,000 to $124,000. Solana went from $10 to $300. Multiple tokens launched at massively inflated fully diluted valuations. Celebrity coins proliferated. Michael Saylor’s leveraged bitcoin strategy became a template others rushed to copy.
The comments implied that the signals were everywhere, visible to anyone willing to look. The market simply chose not to look until it was too late.
The Fundamental Disconnect
The crash feels especially disorienting given what has changed underneath. Despite evidence that sustainable revenues rather than speculation now drive a greater share of crypto valuations than ever before, the market punished believers anyway.
This creates the tension at the heart of Demeny’s buy call. The industry has matured. Applications generate real fees from real users. Protocols distribute value to token holders. The speculative premium that defined 2021 has largely evaporated, replaced by something closer to actual business models.
But none of that stopped prices from falling 21% in a month.
Two Views, One Market
The disagreement between Demeny and Howard reflects a deeper uncertainty about what drives crypto prices. Technical frameworks like Demeny’s assume patterns repeat, that market structure reveals information that fundamentals cannot. Howard’s view emphasizes capital flows and institutional behavior, suggesting the game itself has changed.
Both could be right about different things, along different timelines. Stablecoin infrastructure may indeed represent crypto’s most important use case in 2026, as Howard argues, while bitcoin prices still follow cyclical patterns that reward disciplined contrarians, as Demeny believes.
For retail investors caught between these views, the choice is uncomfortable. Buy into bearishness on the word of an analyst whose framework just worked. Or accept that the old cycles no longer apply and the peak may already be in.
Demeny has made his choice. His framework told him to sell at $110,000. It now tells him to buy at $87,500. The discipline that kept him out at the top puts him in after the crash. Whether that discipline rewards him again depends on whether technical analysis still works in a market that increasingly wants to trade on fundamentals but cannot seem to escape its speculative nature.