Crypto traders have long termed October as “Uptober” in colloquialism that nods to the month’s tendency in delivering the biggest rallies for bitcoin. But this year’s record is shaping to be the worst since 2015, so far.
Bitcoin is down 5% month-to-date, trading near $107,000 in late Asian hours on Sunday, CoinGlass data shows. The historical average for October sits around 19.8%, next to November’s 42% which is the asset’s strongest month.
Macro risk has drowned out seasonality. The U.S.–China tariff standoff, weak liquidity, and a string of leveraged washouts have all combined to cap upside.
Bitcoin’s slide under $107,000 last week triggered another $1.2 billion in liquidations, wiping out long positions built after September’s rebound. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are each down 4%–7% on the week, while smaller tokens like and have dropped over 20%. The CoinDesk 20 Index is down 8% in October.
October’s red streak isn’t unprecedented, but it’s rare. Bitcoin has only closed the month lower two times in twelve years — 2014 and 2018, with the latter ending with a 3% decline.
However, in 2020, bitcoin flipped from an early October loss to a 27% rally by month-end, setting up the following year’s record highs. With two weeks left, the calendar still leaves room for a reversal.
“Uptober” may not be but it’s testing its name this year.