Jackson-Stops’ 2026 Property Market Predictions
House prices will rise between two and three per cent nextyear as the UK’s housing market shifts from subdued to steady, and normality resumes for the first time since the pre-Covid era, according to new findings from national estate agent Jackson-Stops.
The Chancellor’s recent Budget has now passed, easing immediate concerns around more punitive wealth and property taxes, albeit perhaps not permanently. Combined with anticipated interest rate cuts, this is likely to give many vendors and buyers the confidence to move forward with their plans and make a move.
In January, it will be six years since the ‘Boris Bounce’, the onset of Covid-19 and a prolonged period of disruption and uncertainty in the housing market. The six-week closure of the housing market was followed by the race for space, boosted by the short-term stamp duty holiday. The 2022 emergency budget threw the housing market into turmoil as historically low interest rates soared and post-Covid inflation took hold.
Unnaturally high price growth in coastal and rural Britain then began to unravel, expedited by the sell-off of second homes under pressure from the increasingly heavy burden of regulation on individual landlords and second homeowners. 2024 and 2025 were dogged by political instability around the general election and leading up to a well-trailed budget.
Interest rates are expected to settle in the mid-threes, already factored in by many mortgage lenders. This improving outlook is helping to restore confidence across the market. The first quarter of the year is set to be particularly busy, driven by pent-up demand that built ahead of the Budget and is expected to carry through into next year, reinforcing a spring bounce that should be more pronounced than the long-term norm.
While much of the industry was uneasy about the kite-flying in the run-up to the Budget, the final outcome was better than initially feared. This has created the conditions for an unexpected ‘Reeves rebound’, giving buyers the reassurance they needed to proceed with their plans and move forward.
Following almost six years of exceptional volatility driven by Covid, fiscal shocks and political uncertainty, 2026 is now expected to mark a return to a more stable and recognisable housing market.
Prime regional markets to rebound in 2026
Labour’s proposed mansion tax, due to be introduced from 2028, appears less impactful than initially suggested. The annual levy is set at £2,500 for homes valued above £2 million and £7,500 for properties exceeding £5 million. Jackson-Stops expects this to have little effect on buyer appetite at this level of the market, though there are concerns around how properties will be valued in practice and how the valuation process will be administered.
Council tax reform is long overdue, but it’s far from simple. The current system is still based on property bands set in 1991 using “drive-by” valuations and even then, the process cost around £19m to do. Trying to repeat something on that scale today would be hugely expensive, and relying on automated valuation models (AVMs) instead is not a realistic alternative for accurate results.
“While AVMs may offer a faster alternative, they are notoriously unreliable for higher-value or unique properties, risking significant inaccuracies. That raises serious questions about how updated valuations will be established in practice, whether they will come from statistical modelling, market data, or a hybrid approach, and how disputes will be managed. Errors or inconsistencies could open the door to appeals and legal challenges.
While the full implications of council tax reform remain some way off, the Budget has already acted as a catalyst for buyer activity in the prime market. In fact, Jackson-Stops agents report a flurry of offers, exchanges and completions of deals worth more than £1,000,000 in the immediate aftermath of the Budget, most notably in prime central London (PCL), Cheshire’s Golden Triangle and the Cotswolds. This initial December rush, unusual for two weeks before Christmas, may be an early indicator for the spring selling season. According to Jackson-Stops agents, vendors are lining up to either launch in January or are preparing for sale in the spring.
The urgency to agree deals in December suggests that buyers believe the prime regional market offers good value for money and they want to secure their property at that price now. The market is set for a modest uplift next year.”
Research from Jackson-Stops on the prime market supports this rebound. To buy the top one per cent of homes outside London you need 25 per cent less than three years ago, from £1,670,000 in 2022 to £1,250,000 in 2025.
For decades, the prime market has defied gravity, consistently outpacing every other segment. Our data shows that 2022 was likely the peak of that 30-year cycle with realignment happening ever since. Prices at the very top have been, on average, softening faster than any time since records began, but this trend looks set to change.